Win Phone to outgrow smartmobe market for next four years

Between now and 2019 we'll make one mobe for just about every human on Earth

Phones on test

Abacus-wielder IDC has issued a new set of prognostications about the mobile phone market, predicting that 1.447 billion of them will ship this year.

That's a lovely number, but its lower than the firm has previously predicted. The lower figure – and growth of 11.3 per cent instead of 11.8 per cent – can be attributed to China's saturated market. Indeed, the firm reckons China will drag down Android's market share, slowing it to an 8.5 per cent advance this year.

The analyst sees upside for Apple, as fanbois who held onto old kit while they waited for larger-screened iPhones enter a new buying cycle.

The biggest winner between now and 2019, the firm predicts, is Microsoft. Redmond can expect to just-about double annual handset shipments and crack the 100-million-a-year mark, even if that makes for a mere 5.4 per cent market share.

Here's the tale of the tape:

Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by OS, Shipments, Market Share, Growth and 5-Year CAGR (units in millions)

OS

2015* Shipment Volumes

2015* Market Share

2015* Year-Over-Year Growth

2019* Shipment Volumes

2019* Market Share

2019* Year-Over-Year Growth

5-Year CAGR

Android

1,149.3

79.4%

8.5%

1,524.1

79.0%

5.0%

7.5%

iOS

237.0

16.4%

23.0%

274.5

14.2%

3.0%

7.3%

Windows Phone

46.8

3.2%

34.1%

103.5

5.4%

13.6%

24.3%

Others

14.2

1.0%

3.9%

26.3

1.4%

7.5%

14.0%

TOTAL

1,447.3

100.0%

11.3%

1,928.4

100.0%

5.1%

8.2%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, May 26, 2015.

While growth in smartphone sales is slowing, pause to consider the sheer volume of shipments because humanity will make more than 120 million phones each month in 2015, or about four million every day. Between now and 2019, the end of IDC's forecast period, we'll have just about made one for every human alive. ®

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