Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07/10/displaysearch_2016_tv_market_forecast_predicts_lcd_oled_future/

LCD to have killed all* other TV technologies by 2016

*OLED excepted (if it's accepted)

By Tony Smith

Posted in Hardware, 10th July 2012 14:12 GMT

Bye-bye, plasma. Farewell, reverse projection. By 2016, the TV market will be a two-horse technology race: LED-backlit LCD and OLED.

So said market watcher NPD DisplaySearch today, forecasting sales of 281m flat-panel tellies in 2015, up from around 245m this year, itself down from 2010's 250m-unit peak.

For plasma, there's life in the old dog yet, but the display technology will be on its last legs come 2015, prompting DisplaySearch to rule it out from making an appearance in 2016.

Then, LCD will have the lion's share: 269.5m units, with the remaining 11.5m TVs shipping that year - 6.4 per cent of the total - being based on OLED technology.

OLED numbers will slowing increase from 2013 onwards, from effectively nothing this year. LCD will take 97 per cent of the market in 2015.

OLED's growth will undoubtedly be aided by a shift in demand toward bigger sets, though early adopter pricing - $10,000 (£6440) for a 50in screen - will be a disincentive in a world where 50in and up LCDs are getting cheaper and cheaper.

DisplaySearch said the share of TV shipments at 50in and larger screen sizes is expected to jump from 6.5 per cent in 2011 to 7.7 per cent in 2012 and reach ten per cent by 2015.

"This will bring the average screen size to 35in for the first time in 2012, while the average size sold in North America is expected to exceed 40in in 2013," the researcher said. ®