Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/11/28/wp7_vs_android/

WP7 vs Android: a struggle for supremacy

Microsoft must not throw away its best chance to outwit Google

By Wireless Watch

Posted in Mobile, 28th November 2010 09:00 GMT

Microsoft may be pandering to carriers by backing away from controlled updates, but predictable user experience is the best way to win fans from fragmented Android. Google can no longer dismiss criticisms of OS strategy from majors such as Netflix.

For all its flaws, one attraction of Google‘s "carrier-lite" sales model for the Nexus One was that it freed users from the whim of the operator or handset maker when waiting for software updates. Google has never ceased to ram that point home, with new Android releases and enhancements consistently turning up on the small base of Nexus Ones out there, well ahead of any carrier‘s update program. But generally, there is little incentive for carriers or OEMs to upgrade devices – vendors would rather users bought a new phone, and so would operators as long as it comes with a new data plan.

Now Microsoft has waded into the mire of confusion that surrounds OS update policies, with its new Windows Phone 7, as it seeks to strike a balance between openness and control. And Nokia‘s new system of a "continuous stream" of Symbian modifications, rather than one or two big releases a year, may be even trickier to manage.

Microsoft, being Microsoft, is being heavily criticised – by some for being too prescriptive about WP7, by others for giving carriers some freedom to decide when and whether to release WP7 enhancements. The latter has been a downside of the free-for-all approach of Android, and partly responsible for the fragmentation of the Google OS base. The number and variety of Android devices make OS updates a complex matter, especially when dealing with carriers such as Verizon Wireless, which are famously careful about testing any changes that may affect their networks. Each Android release has to be separately adapted by the vendor for each individual handset, and then that combination must be tested by the cellco, which may also add its own code or overlays. Result – fragmentation, unpredictable and sometimes long waits for updates, and annoyance at carriers‘ fiddling with the Android experience.

Microsoft's OS updates policy

Microsoft can be more dictatorial than Google, since it controls its platform, but it does have to deal with multiple vendors and model designs. It also, as an also-ran in the smartphone game, has to be rather more conciliatory towards cellcos than Apple. The latter issues iOS updates centrally with no reference to the operators. While that is a source of some carrier discomfort, reinforcing Apple‘s ability to use its market strength to ignore their interests, it is generally popular with consumers.

At the launch of WP7, it was clear that Microsoft was trying to please all parties, though ensuing debates suggest it has failed. The firm claimed it would be able to manage the user experience better than Google has, because it would keep control of updates and would impose strict rules on its OEM partners. Indeed, vendors have to follow some surprisingly rigid guidelines on WP7 handsets, choosing between three standardised hardware chassis for different grades of phone, and adhering to strict rules on the user interface. These rules bring an element of quality control that is missing from Android, Microsoft supporters argue, and enable the firm to differentiate WP7 with its key innovation, its hub-based UI, the first major modern user experience not to emulate the iPhone‘s.

However, the risk is that Microsoft alienates powerful partners by giving them too little room to differentiate themselves (HTC‘s famous Sense UI has been a big driver of sales for its Android and Windows Mobile phones, but is hidden in a lower layer on WP7). The software giant may also be falling into its old trap of overestimating how much consumers love its user experiences.

IDC analyst Nick McQuire commented in an interview: "Microsoft has a big challenge ahead to build a relationship directly with consumers. To do that, it needs to make sure that user experience is really tight and clean and very Microsoft."

But being "very Microsoft" may be precisely what puts some consumers off.

Uneasy compromises with carriers

Like Apple, Google and even Nokia, Microsoft does want to make its own brand the primary one for the user base, driving their user experience and the kind of applications and services they access. But it is very unclear, as yet, whether WP7 will be sufficiently appealing to create that relationship, in the way that Apple has.

In the mean time, Microsoft remains reliant on the goodwill of the cellcos, which really do control the user relationship in most parts of the high end (postpaid) mobile base. As Google found with Nexus One, and even Apple with its aborted embedded SIM plan (see separate item), the carriers cannot be excised too hastily from the mobile value chain.

That means Microsoft has to engage in some uneasy compromises in its policy towards OS changes and other updates such as security releases. Its official line is: "Microsoft will push Windows Phone 7 software updates to end users and all Windows Phone 7 devices will be eligible for updates."

Small changes would be delivered over the air and larger ones by USB through the Zune software. Updates will still need to be supported technically and tested, though, and that can be a complex task, even if there are unlikely to be as many WP7 modifications as Android ones.

So the reality may not be so simple. Already, Microsoft has pulled back on over the air updates and bug fixes, for now at least, making the phone dependent on a PC. And earlier this month, attendees at a WP7 reviewers‘ workshop found that carriers will now be able to hold back updates in some circumstances, indicating confusion in the Microsoft strategy. Joe Belfiore, director of Windows Phone program management, was quoted by the ArsTechnica blog as saying: "We build updates for all Windows Phone users, but must certify them with the carriers. They'll happen on a regular cadence like they do on the PC. If a carrier wants to stop an update they can. But they will get it out on the next release."

He added: "Carriers could in fact block updates to sell you a phone. That can happen. But we don't expect that to happen. We are not going to push updates onto carrier networks that they have not tested."

He made a clear call to the carrier to justify the additional flexibility they appear to have won, saying: "Microsoft is being very trusting of the carriers here. This is very different from the situation with Windows Mobile where every phone was very different. With Windows Phone, there is no impact on OEM code, network code, and so on. Yes, there are upgrades that will require a full test pass. But most will not."

The underlying message seems clear – Microsoft will be less heavy-handed with operators than Apple, but it does not expect them to abuse that position, since WP7 should not present genuine technical difficulties on the networks.

In other words, Microsoft‘s softening is in the interests of keeping carriers happy, not avoiding genuine problems for end users. Since first wave WP7 handsets are so similar, because of the design guidelines, it would be perfectly feasible for all the updates to be centrally managed from Zune servers, bypassing operators. Microsoft has moved on significantly from the anarchy of Windows Mobile, where every device was so different that it needed separate testing, and there was no commonality of experience for users. With Android emulating the WinMo model, Microsoft has an opportunity to market WP7‘s more controlled, consumer friendly approach as a serious differentiator. It must be careful not to lose that advantage by being too accommodating to the cellcos.

Android fragmentation

The specific issues of OS updates highlights wider concerns about Android, which Google needs to address to prevent consumer irritation becoming fury – thus opening opportunities for Apple, Microsoft and Nokia to bite back. Nearly all the major concerns relate to fragmentation, caused by Android‘s open source nature and Google‘s relentless upgrade process. Not only are there multiple and incompatible releases in the market at any one time, but operators and OEMs add their own tweaks too, and most software vendors struggle to keep up with all the variations.

Some issues will be addressed naturally as the platform gains maturity, but ironically, the solution Google itself favors is to increase its control over the user experience the OEMs and operators deliver – bringing it closer to Apple and Microsoft. But if it really succeeds in imposing common rules about Android 3.0 implementation, it could alienate some of its largest supporters. Already, Samsung is indicating that it will weight its handset release roadmap for 2011 towards WP7, despite the success of its Android based Galaxy S. In other words, it is easy to forget, amid the progress of Android and iOS, that smartphones are a very young market and many players are still jostling for position. It is not yet a foregone conclusion that Android will keep its lead, and Google‘s decisions on how to balance control versus anarchy will be as important as Microsoft‘s in deciding the fortunes of their respective OSs.

Android fragmentation hit the spotlight again in the past couple of weeks as two high-profile apps providers complained that the multiple incompatible versions of the platform made their task impossible.

Casual games developer Rovio Mobile said it would create a lightweight Android version of its flagship title Angry Birds because consumers with older handsets were experiencing such bad performance issues. "With our latest update, we worked hard to bring Angry Birds to even more Android devices. Despite our efforts, we were unsuccessful in delivering optimal performance," Rovio wrote on its blog.

It listed more than a dozen Android smartphones that could not be supported, including all those with release 1.6 or below, or with custom ROMs. Angry Birds is available for iPhone and Symbian and has received over 7 million downloads.

Video-streaming king Netflix is also out of patience with Android. Although its Watch Instantly subscription service is available on about 200 connected consumer devices, it is still struggling with the Google OS. In the mobile space, it supports the iPhone and iPad, Symbian, WP7 and others, but it says Android suffers too much from device fragmentation and lack of a common digital rights management (DRM) solution.

In a blog post, Netflix‘ product development manager Greg Peters wrote: "The hurdle has been the lack of a generic and complete platform security and content protection mechanism available for Android. The same security issues that have led to piracy concerns on the Android platform have made it difficult for us to secure a common DRM system on these devices. Setting aside the debate around the value of content protection and DRM, they are requirements we must fulfill in order to obtain content from major studios for our subscribers to enjoy."

He also pointed to the problems of fragmentation, especially when carriers add their own features. "Unfortunately, this ... leads to a fragmented experience on Android, in which some handsets will have access to Netflix and others won‘t. This clearly is not the preferred solution, and we regret the confusion it might create for consumers. However, we believe that providing the service for some Android device owners is better than denying it to everyone."

In a world where content delivery, especially video, will be at the heart of the mobile experience, such complaints are serious ones. In the short term, some OEMs or carriers may welcome the chance to lure users to upgrade to a new phone that does support a key app like Netflix, but overall they will be wary of any signs of consumer and developer backlash.

Is Samsung putting WP7 ahead of Android?

Probably the biggest blow in Android‘s hitherto charmed life came last week from Samsung, which, though never religious about operating systems, is hugely important to the success of any platform because of its market size. It has traditionally supported almost any open OS out there – Symbian, WinMo, LiMO, other Linux flavors, and more recently Android and WP7. But it has been narrowing its focus somewhat as it aims to release a few truly high impact devices, rather than take its usual scattergun approach into the smartphone market. It has backed away from Symbian and LiMO and its belated smartphone push centered on variations of a single handset, the hugely successful Galaxy S. But despite the high sales of that phone, it seems that Samsung will focus mainly on Windows Phone 7, rather than Android, in 2011.

According to a report in iMobile.com, Samsung plans for almost two- thirds of its high end models next year to run WP7, even though senior executives said, just a few months ago, that they would prioritise on Android. At this stage, WP7 had not yet hit the market, and Samsung had decided to move away from Symbian.

Samsung insiders said there was no pullback from Android, but it would greatly expand its smartphone ranges overall next year. It may be that the firm believes it can steal an early march in WP7 and dominate it more easily than Android, though previously, HTC and LG have been the closest Microsoft partners.

However its range balances out, the vendor will continue to use its scale to create a wide range of different models targeted carefully at different user profiles. Its own bada platform is also reported to be faring better than many had expected. When it was launched at the start of the year, single-vendor operating systems seemed to be on their way out, but since then the market has fragmented again, with several new options such as MeeGo and webOS 2.0 on the horizon.

And according to consultant Tomi Ahonen, in his latest quarterly update on smartphones, bada had 1.3 million active users in the third quarter, about 2 per cent of the global base for high-end handsets.

That would make bada the most successful mobile OS launch since the first iPhone iOS, achieved with only one handset, the popular Wave, and without the support of a US cellco. The Wave boasted Samsung‘s Super AMOLED display technology and a friendly, widget-based user interface at a lower price than the Galaxy S. It has now been joined by two further bada handsets.

Android remains in pole position to take second place in smartphones next year, and to usurp Symbian in some markets. But the market is a fluid and uncertain one, and Google‘s CEO Eric Schmidt needs to take a more decisive stance.

At last week‘s Web 2.0 Summit, he had his head firmly in the sand, saying the contracts made with the Open Handset Alliance (the group of Android supporters) were good enough to prevent a splintering of Android Market, and that Market apps would run across all handsets. Netflix and Rovio say otherwise, and Google needs to address the issue before it suffers the ultimate humiliation of losing out to Microsoft. ®

Copyright © 2010, Wireless Watch

Wireless Watch is published by Rethink Research, a London-based IT publishing and consulting firm. This weekly newsletter delivers in-depth analysis and market research of mobile and wireless for business. Subscription details are here.