Network competition? Puh-lease. It's all about the Apple-Android Axis of Fondle

These aren't the 'droids you are looking... oh hang on

The rise in Forked Android is clear evidence that manufacturers and operators want to take back control over the environment on the handsets they manufacture and sell. The nascent open-source OS vendors Tizen, Ubuntu and Sailfish all stress the openness and ability to tailor their OSes to the clients’ requirements in a way that isn’t possible with Apple, Google, Microsoft and BlackBerry.

This is exemplified by Sailfish’s recent move to build an Indian ecosystem centred on the e-commerce vendor Snapdeal. Jolla chairman Antti Saarnio reckons local markets are better served by local service providers than US multinationals. He’s in discussions to replicate similar deals in China, Russia and Japan.

There is lots Google can do about this. Back in 2012, Google reportedly threatened to pull its Android support from Acer if Acer launched hardware using Alibaba's Aliyun Forked Android OS.

Google might not like regional moves, but Sailfish, Ubuntu and Tizen stand to benefit from a growing suspicion of a) the dominance of both Android and iOS and b) US technology companies in general. Russia's minister of communications and mass media, Nikolai Nikiforov, last month reportedly tweeted that the government was “offering grants to those developers who will translate their applications from the monopolies of Google and Android across to the independent Tizen and Sailfish".

Similarly, in China, the government appears increasingly concerned about the country’s dependence on Android, Apple and Microsoft (it has banned Windows 8 from the desktop, which isn’t the greatest introduction for Windows Phone). In part this is influenced by what some in China see as Google’s discrimination against Chinese firms and in part by revelations from former NSA sysadmin and whistleblower Edward Snowden that US intelligence planted backdoor surveillance tools on US-made hardware.

Microsoft's emerging market entry: The Lumia 640

The priority in China, however, is creating a home-grown OS for desktop and mobile called China Operating System. The expectation was that COS would be released in October 2014, but to date there’s little known about the OS – but with the backing of the Chinese government you’d have to put a wager on this being a major contender.

Another blind spot is security, and there’s plenty of room to improve – especially in the Android camp. Google’s operating system attracts more malware than other mobile OSs (according to Lookout). Privacy-wise, Android also suffers from the perception that Google’s ad-funded business model makes customer data a commodity to be bought and sold.

Both Microsoft and BlackBerry can press home their advantages here, but Microsoft has the benefit that it’s already trusted in the enterprise across many areas of IT. The Linux variants are unknown entities on the security side, but Mozilla’s work with Deutsche Telecom sounds attractive to consumers concerned about privacy and Ubuntu set a new standard by allowing consumers to opt in/out on individual features on its Scopes.

Clearly there are many contenders and potential markets. It might be that there is no single third-place player, that different companies and platforms will prevail in different locations. What seems increasingly certain is the whatever emerges will be cheap.

With the notable exception of Apple, the majority of the business is focused at the low end of the market as purveyors of Google’s entry level Android One battle it out with the sellers of Forked Android. This cut-throat market is tough: The £25 Firefox-based Orange Klif could give Firefox OS a foot in the door.

Microsoft, with its deep pockets, is one favourite in the West – particularly in the business market, unless BlackBerry can somehow sort out its act and arrest its demise. But in emerging markets, particularly China, the future dominance of US tech companies is in doubt. Since China is the most important mobile market in the world, both from the point of view of number of users and as an equipment manufacturer, what happens there could well influence the rest of the developing world.

Does this give Ubuntu, Sailfish, Tizen and Firefox a chance? Definitely. But the one to really watch out for has to be some home-grown Chinese OS that has yet to appear, perhaps the mythical COS. ®