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IDC revises mobe sales forecasts. New crystal ball, anyone?

Beancounters lick fingers, pick random numbers

Comment Analyst outfit IDC says that the rate of increase in smartphone sales is going to fall – but not as fast as it had previously predicted.

The company, which in February this year predicted that global sales of smartphones would be 1.2 billion units, has taken note of that figure being much closer to 1.3bn, the company had predicted 2014 growth of 19.3 per cent.

In the event it was 26.3 per cent, and so IDC has looked at the other predictions. Meanwhile in August this year the firm said that this year would represent a 23.8 per cent increase.

Yet in 2011 Ramon Llamas, phones research manager at IDC forecast, said: “By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android” and predicted a market share of 20 per cent for the Redmond OS.

Which all means that you might choose to take the latest predictions with a small mountain of salt.

What the company is saying now is that Android has an 82.3 per cent market share, iOS has 13.8 per cent and Windows 2.7 per cent, but in 2018 these figures will have dropped a little to 80 per cent. iOS market share will drop to 12.8 per cent and Windows Phone will double to 5.6 per cent. Which all makes “Windows at 20 per cent in 2015” look a little off-beam.

With that in mind here are IDC’s predictions. The company expects 1.4 billion smartphones to be shipped worldwide in 2015, giving a 12.2 per cent year-over-year growth rate. The bloodbath will be on price:

"The impact of upstart Chinese players in the global market will be reflected in a race to the bottom when it comes to price. " said Melissa Chau, senior research manager. “On a worldwide basis, smartphones are expected to have an average selling price (ASP) of US$297 worldwide in 2014, dropping to US$241 by 2018. Emerging markets like India will see much lower smartphone prices, as ASPs hit US$135 in 2014 and fall to US$102 by 2018.”

The IDC analyst goes on to state the obvious: “With Android volumes so dominant, it is no longer a possibility for new operating systems like Tizen and Firefox to compete on price alone – any underdog OS must bring a radically different appeal to gain any significant traction.”

There is no more talk of peak Apple, with Ramon Llamas saying: "Apple's approach with premium pricing ensures a growing portion of overall revenues despite its declining market share.”

So in summary, some things are going to go up, some down and nothing stays the same and the rate at which they do so changes, and sometimes the rate at which it changes also changes.

All clear then? Good. ®

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