Police stats inflate the number of guns actually stolen in Blighty

One shotgun, two shotguns, three shotguns...

It is important to note at this point that ACPO did not issue a detailed breakdown of the figures in the same way as the Home Office, so we are comparing detailed figures - which permit greater accuracy in checking the information presented - with figures compiled by ACPO where we don't know what data made up the final numbers.

The figures given below for the Home Office (HO) are the sense-checked ones where non-firearm objects have been culled from the data.

Table 2: Firearm and shotgun losses & thefts for 2009. HO data controlled to remove non-gun objects

Table 3: Firearm and shotgun losses & thefts for 2010. HO data controlled to remove non-gun objects

Table 4: Firearm and shotgun losses & thefts for 2011. HO data controlled to remove non-gun objects

It is apparent that ACPO's figures do not agree with the Home Office's figures. Your correspondent's hypothesis is that the ACPO figures are being inflated with the inclusion of non-firearm objects and firearms/shotguns lost or stolen from sources other than civilian ownership; for example, from Army Reserve and cadet units, or perhaps even police forces themselves.

Overall, the sense-checked Home Office figures indicate that 457 actual firearms or shotguns were lost during the years 2009 - 2011, while 1,080 were stolen; a total of 1,537.

The ACPO figures for the same period indicate that 1,105 shotguns and firearms were stolen, while 594 were lost; a total of 1,699. This is 10.54 per cent greater than the detailed Home Office statistics indicate.

The greatest discrepancy is with firearms, where - as can be seen from the tables above - ACPO claim 75 per cent more losses or thefts of firearms occur than is the case when compared against the sense-checked Home Office data.

The Register asked ACPO to comment on the gulf between their figures and the detailed Home Office figures. National Policing Lead for Firearms and Explosives Licensing, Chief Constable Andy Marsh, said:

"The data for thefts and losses shown from the National Firearms Licensing Management System includes firearms, shotguns and items that the law requires to be covered on a certificate. Whilst items, such as sound moderators, do account for a percentage of lost or stolen firearms over the last five years, the majority of items still relate to actual guns and the risk of just one of those firearms falling into the hands of a criminal, along with any item that they do not have the legal right to possess, is a significant and justified concern.”