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Don't go away, IBM and SAP – Larry's not finished with you yet

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Oracle, IBM and SAP are in Division 2. These are companies that make a lot more money than those in division one, multiple billions per quarter and tens of billions each year, but this comes from operations that the cloud threatens.

The question is this: which of the firms from division two can break into and lead division one?

On this, there is no clear leader and race resembles the jostling just as the horses in a race leave the gate.

SAP claims fast growth from its cloud-related business, but has pushed back its overall revenue goals by two years while also muddying the number it has given. It has stated a $3bn to $3.5bn target but this is a number that is tainted by the fact it leaves in all the costs associated with getting there.

IBM, we found out this month, is making more from selling other people its hardware and software to build clouds than it does from its own cloud services. It will now spend $1.2bn to build 40 data centres to make more online services available, so it is moving sideways in this race.

Oracle is treading water. New software licences and cloud software subscriptions in Oracle’s latest quarter were flat year on year at $2.3bn.

The figure alone means Oracle is in the SAP ballpark on cloud-related income but when it comes to growth SAP is the winner – it claimed a 66 per cent jump in cloud subscriptions and support to €209m ($285m) during its latest quarter (year on year) while software and cloud subscriptions were up two per cent to €2.10bn ($2.87bn).

The pressure to break clear from this pack is intense.

All three companies are of a similar size and force, well financed with billions of dollars to their names and armies of staff and partners.

Each knows the other two has got it in them to beat it, a fact that makes it incumbent on each party to try to beat the other two.

IBM and Oracle have been rivals in software and hardware, but IBM is losing weight on the hardware by dumping x86 servers on Lenovo while bulking up on its data centre footprint to host more cloud services.

SAP has fought Oracle on owning the beating heart of organisations through their ERP. But after 30-odd years and with both companies enjoying huge market share, the bad news is they now need to start all over again.

A Gartner report this week claimed the kind of highly customisable, all-in-one ERP systems that made Oracle and SAP rich will no longer be bought by customers in two years' time. New business spend will be going on best of breed in the cloud.

Andy Kyte, vice president and Gartner fellow has written:

The concept of a single ERP suite that meets all of an organisation's needs is dead, and has been replaced by a hybrid ERP approach that combines cloud point solutions with a smaller "core" of on-premises ERP function, such as financials and manufacturing. Gartner predicts that hybrid ERP environments will be the norm within five years.

Which means SAP and Oracle will lock horns once more, this time offering cloud-based ERP and integrating existing ERP with the cloud. Only this time, they will be up against more smaller, more nimble and fast growing apps rivals, like Workday – offering the HR portion of the ERP puzzle.

So, bend over IBM and SAP - and prepare once more for the sound of snapping bath towels in the locker room of enterprise tech. ®

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