Feeds

Number-crunching quant cooks up gambling machine, promises untold RICHES

Can 50,000 match simulations turn you into a winner?

Top 5 reasons to deploy VMware with Tegile

HPC blog Have you ever wanted to lay a bet down on the Las Vegas sports books? Or take a bundle of money from the suckers in your office's Final Four betting pool? Is it possible to win sports bets consistently over the long haul?

According to the guys at PredictionMachine.com, the answer is yes. Their secret weapon? Numbers, baby – it’s all in the numbers. They’ve built a formidable prediction tool with their Predictalator, the name they’ve given their methodology and algorithms.

What’s interesting about their approach is that they aren’t looking at historical trends and trying to quantify their hunches. They’re taking a highly scientific and quantitative approach with sophisticated models and lots of simulations. In fact, their tool simulates each and every game 50,000 times before making a pick.

Over the last three years, the company's founders claim, Predictalator has scored wins on better than 70 per cent of their straight-up bets, and better than 50 per cent vs the Vegas spread.

This is a combined record on all of the professional and college football, basketball, pro hockey, and Major League Baseball games they’ve picked over the last three years, they say.

My pal Rich Brueckner and I had a chance to interview PredictionMachine.com founder Paul Bessire as part of our Radio Free HPC podcast a few weeks ago. In the programme, Paul discusses the genesis of the Predictalator and how he turned his master’s degree in quantitative analysis into a full-time business.

Along the way, we talk about what’s involved in analysing sports and how they arrived at their winning formula. It’s interesting listening for anyone who has ever been curious about applying scientific methodology to sports.

Paul also gives us some perspective on how technology has advanced over the past few years. When he first started, it would take 30 minutes to simulate one NFL season (267 games) "only" 50 times – which was, he said, far too small a sample size and yielded terrible results.

Today he can run a complete NFL season in a mere eight seconds using only one server, which is a pretty incredible speed-up in just the last three or four years. Some of this improvement is because of better code on his part, but much of it is due to faster technology – particularly when it comes to generating random numbers and raw compute power.

This speed is what enables their latest, and perhaps coolest, feature. Their Live ScoreCaster app tracks the action in live games and instantly updates their projections as game conditions change. For example, after every play in a football game, their server simulates the game 50,000 times and then publishes a new predicted outcome. This free app gives you the analytic justification to declare, “This idiot just lost us the game!” with complete authority.

Check out the podcast here – it’s an entertaining conversation about how analytics can be used for fun and profit. And good luck with the bookies… ®

Choosing a cloud hosting partner with confidence

More from The Register

next story
NSA SOURCE CODE LEAK: Information slurp tools to appear online
Now you can run your own intelligence agency
Azure TITSUP caused by INFINITE LOOP
Fat fingered geo-block kept Aussies in the dark
NASA launches new climate model at SC14
75 days of supercomputing later ...
Yahoo! blames! MONSTER! email! OUTAGE! on! CUT! CABLE! bungle!
Weekend woe for BT as telco struggles to restore service
Cloud unicorns are extinct so DiData cloud mess was YOUR fault
Applications need to be built to handle TITSUP incidents
BOFH: WHERE did this 'fax-enabled' printer UPGRADE come from?
Don't worry about that cable, it's part of the config
Stop the IoT revolution! We need to figure out packet sizes first
Researchers test 802.15.4 and find we know nuh-think! about large scale sensor network ops
SanDisk vows: We'll have a 16TB SSD WHOPPER by 2016
Flash WORM has a serious use for archived photos and videos
Astro-boffins start opening universe simulation data
Got a supercomputer? Want to simulate a universe? Here you go
prev story

Whitepapers

Designing and building an open ITOA architecture
Learn about a new IT data taxonomy defined by the four data sources of IT visibility: wire, machine, agent, and synthetic data sets.
The total economic impact of Druva inSync
Examining the ROI enterprises may realize by implementing inSync, as they look to improve backup and recovery of endpoint data in a cost-effective manner.
A strategic approach to identity relationship management
ForgeRock commissioned Forrester to evaluate companies’ IAM practices and requirements when it comes to customer-facing scenarios versus employee-facing ones.
Reg Reader Research: SaaS based Email and Office Productivity Tools
Read this Reg reader report which provides advice and guidance for SMBs towards the use of SaaS based email and Office productivity tools.
Business security measures using SSL
Examines the major types of threats to information security that businesses face today and the techniques for mitigating those threats.