BlackBerry: Aaah, Microsoft, we meet again.. for another deathmatch
Ballmer: Bring me the head of Alicia Keys, and let's end this
What is it with technology giants plonking award-winning pop vixens into top jobs to tout their new gear? Are they a mere distraction or underrated business executives?
RIM, sorry, BlackBerry made Grammy-winning singer Alicia Keys its global creative director for its BlackBerry OS 10 launch along with two new mobes.
According to the Canadian biz, Keys will “work closely with app developers, content creators, retailers, carriers and the entertainment community to further shape and enhance the BlackBerry 10 platform” on books, film, and apps.
Keys isn't known for her QNX kernel hacks nor her knowledge of HTML5. Twitter wags weighed in: “When a tech company trots out an ‘official celebrity endorser' you know they are spending their money wisely,” one quipped. Online music locker entrepreneur Michael Robertson added: “Lookout iOS, BlackBerry hired Alicia Keys.”
Tech companies love to associate with celebs as much as some celebs like to rub shoulders with shiny tech. Electronics giants and software leviathans hire megastars to reach millions of fans, start viral marketing and boost sales, ideally - Keys has 11,000,000-ish followers on Twitter.
Microsoft last year paid Jessica Alba to launch Windows Phone 8; compared to Keys, Alba's a serious B-lister, known more for modelling work than her film and TV roles and the object of desire among certain circles of geek.
Yet Alba may prove up to the task of taking on Keys. Robertson was free to poke fun at Blackberry's new exec hire, but wrong to single out Apple's iOS. The fight for BlackBerry isn’t with Apple or Android. It's against Microsoft in a struggle to become the third biggest smartphone provider.
You don’t have to take my word for it – take the word of Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer. “We're in absolute good shape in order to be a very strong third ecosystem in the smart phone world,” the shy and retiring man himself told Wall St in 2011 when Windows Phone 7 was on the market.
Before Apple and Google's Android rocked up with games and 69p apps, the smartphone existed as a serious business device for serious business types. That market was owned by RIM and any suits denied a BlackBerry on expenses got stuck with a Windows Mobile phone instead.
Steve Jobs' iPhone changed everything and while Ballmer mocked the threat of the Cupertino mobile to his very serious Windows Mobile business, Apple exploded as a consumer device. Six years later your humble hack is fending off pitches from PR companies hyping up the workplace tech-gasm that is Bring Your Own Device (BYOD).
And six years later, Microsoft and BlackBerry are competing again – only this time it’s not a cosy pillow fight for a duopoly. It’s a street brawl to eke-out a healthy and sustainable share among consumers, business users, application authors, handset makers and carriers. For BlackBerry, its survival is on the line; for Microsoft it's the future of its mobile operating system and damage to its prestige and corporate reputation should that business fail.
Just don't mention Novell, not yet
The pair are coming from totally different trajectories in this fight. Microsoft is growing slowly from a position of zero, riding mostly on Nokia's overly colourful hardware. BlackBerry's star is falling and bleeding market share. The history of companies fighting Microsoft is that once a downward momentum is achieved, it’s impossible to recover.
That’s partly because of the nature of business and the increasingly desperate moves of those in a terminal velocity, which creates a tail-spin of short-term measures that disorientates the victim. Also, it’s a comment on the tenacity, focus, resourcefulness and sheer quantities of cash Microsoft has thrown at development, marketing and the distribution channel. If you want a lesson in history, look to the decline and fall of Novell, Borland and Palm.
Unlike those Novell, Borland and Palm days, BlackBerry and Microsoft - from a technology perspective - are fairly evenly matched. It’s difficult to explain why BlackBerry was so late in delivering version 10 of its OS - now QNX powered - and the new touchscreen Z10 and QWERTY-keyboard Q10. BB OS 10 and Windows Phone 8 offer multitasking, come with app stores and are touchable.
Both companies rely on intense loyalty from their shrinking (in BlackBerry's case) or small (in Microsoft's corner) core of fans: BlackBerry’s saviour could be its instant-messenger, integrated with so many other functions – it’s a lifestyle for some.
Windows Phone 8 groups together related activities in a unique display. Both can be considered relatively secure, too, lovingly cared for by their owners with security and over-the-air updates. Only Apple is comparable on the software front.
That makes this not a technology battle but a war of distribution and wits. In many ways it’s a battle made complicated by the fact both companies are fighting to become many working users’ second choice of phone rather than their only phone.
Ride any train at rush-hour and you’ll see many, many blank-faced commuters thumbing not one but two handsets: a work phone and their own device. The latter is an iPhone or a Samsung Galaxy pocket-stroker. A battered BlackBerry is the other.
It's BlackBerry’s job is to hold onto those existing users by persuading them to upgrade to the OS 10 phones. Microsoft’s challenge is to persuade these people to switch to Windows Phone 8; Microsoft is helped by the fact its brand is business-friendly thanks to Windows, Outlook and products such as SharePoint and that corporates want a counter to Apple, known for policing its software stores for dodgy apps but otherwise accused of shrugging off security problems.
Given BlackBerry doesn’t, yet, license its natty operating system to others, Microsoft can easily out-flank BlackBerry by signing up more handset providers – but only if these operators can get past Microsoft’s love for Nokia. BlackBerry can squeeze around Microsoft by lining up service providers.
Both are hobbled by the fact carriers and phone shops want what’s hot, to make the sales and double their commissions - and right now what's hot is Samsung and Android, for now. Success in smartphones is a chicken-and-egg problem; Windows Phone and Blackberry need to crack a market owned by Samsung and Android, which are selling the most because they are popular.
History dictates that BlackBerry should succumb to Microsoft, but the smartphone market makes the mighty Microsoft as vulnerable as BlackBerry. Like the British economic recovery, Microsoft’s mobile recovery could easily be set back or snuffed out.
Maybe Microsoft and BlackBerry should have paid for Justin Bieber instead. ®
Actual smartphone OS sales figures Q3 2012
[Place]) [Q3 sales] [Q3 market share] [Q2 market share] [OS]
1) 121.2M 70.7% 66.9% Android
2) 26.9M 15.7% 17.0% iOS
3) 7.4M 4.3% 5.1% Blackberry
4) 5.2M 3.0% 2.7% bada
5) 3.4M 2.0% 3.3% Symbian
6) 3.3M 1.9% 3.0% Windows
*) 4.0M 2.3 %1.1% others
The Q4 figures are not complete and they are by manufacturer, not OS. Slightly oversimplified: iOS=Apple, RIM=Blackberry, (Symbian+Windows)=Nokia, (Android+Bada+Others)=(Everyone else).
1) ~63.7M 28.9% Samsung
2) 47.8M 21.7% Apple
3) ~20M 9.1% Huawei
4) 12.5M 5.7% ZTE
5≈) ~10.5M 4.8% Sony
..... 9.8M 4.5% Lenovo
7) 8.6M 3.9% LG
8) 7.0M 3.2% HTC
9) 6.9M 3.1% RIM
10≈) 6.6M 3% Nokia
........ 6.6M 3% Yulong/Coolpad
Android is selling, and the manufactures have no good reason to stop selling what their customers are buying. It is possible that the manufactures will fall out with Google. They have already fallen out with Microsoft, they are not getting their hands on iOS, so the obvious candidate to replace Android is Tizen/Jolla/(The next name for Linux on a phone). Pretend this actually happens and the Android market share gets split into Android + 2 Linux distributions. There is still enough market share for all three to beat iOS, and put Windows down two places.
I think iOS is staying in the top three despite Apple's claims in court that they need injunctions to prevent their customers going elsewhere.
Next up we have Blackberry. Microsoft might like to think they are a top three contender, but they are not in even fourth place. Their battle is not against Blackberry yet.
Bada is Samsung's other OS. I think they are keeping it in case Google starts charging for Android. Its obvious competitor is Tizen. Samsung might decide to keep only one of those two, but they can afford to maintain both. Windows would have to gain market share to beat one of these. In reality, Tizen will go on sale in 2013, and Windows could easily drop one position.
Nokia have set fire to Symbian. I am amazed that Elop did not find a way to push sales down another 100K in Q3 so Windows could come 5th. He did restrict manufacture and sales of Maemo. Without that strange choice, Windows would have been 7th. Maemo is dead, but the developers have banded together after being shoved out of Nokia. Maemo will become Jolla and could become another competitor for Windows.
So Windows was in 6th place in Q3, probably remained static in a growing market in Q4, might beat Symbian in 2013 but is likely to be overtaken by at least one other. Ballmer can say "good shape in order to be a very strong third ecosystem in the smart phone world" as much has he likes, but 5th is a realistic hope and 7th is just as likely.
Back to the article: I liked Max Guevara and Susan Storm, but neither could convince me to want a Windows phone. I had to ask wakipedia who Alicia Keys is, but that does not matter because I am a penguin and will wait for Tizen/Jolla/Whatever before I make a purchase decision.
Apparently WinPho 8 phones are being returned in large numbers
I had dinner recently with a manager from one of the big UK mobile companies and I asked about how well WinPho 8 was selling. He said that they are being returned in large numbers - I asked why and he said the reason was that they were slowing up over weeks to the extent that customers were returning them. I should have asked for some more details but we had other stuff to catch up on so that's all I heard. I can't find much on the web about this - but there are lots of reports of ongoing bugginess and problems with WinPho 8 phones - and maybe the update has caused problems as well.
Also, I had to spend days in mobile phone shops recently and asked a business consultant about the WinPho 8 phones. He said they don't even want to sell the HTC WinPho 8's due to problems with them - would not want to sell one even if asked. He did say he wanted to get a WinPho 8 phone himself but I smelt an attempt to sell one to me - so it may be that they've been offered significant bonuses to shift them.
So, I think the decider will be this - if BlackBerry OS 10 is rock solid and does not have WinPho 8 type problems such as:
* Random restarts/shutdowns/starts
* Poor WiFi - seen that myself - my friends WinPho 8 phone couldn't even see the WiFi networks my Android could.
* Fluctuating screen brightness
* Faulty proximity sensor
* Bluetooth issues
then BB10 has a chance. Also, it's about the interface. On Android (don't have iPhone) I can set different screen up with different apps - and can choose between nice widgets on the display. WinPho 8 seems stuck with a really basic tiles setup which only allows for one 'screen' - and no widgets. I don't know what BB10 has to offer but if it is a better interface then that would help it.
Finally, it's about Long Term Support. If BB can assure business users that BB10 will be supported for a long term then this would help it. MS have bad form in this area what with WinPho 7 etc. What's to say that if Windows 8 bombs as badly as Vista that MS won't drop WinPho 8 in preference to a Windows Phone version which is a partner to Windows 9.
No offence but
This is a very basic misunderstanding of English. If there is a race between, say, me and my brother and Usain Bolt comes along, is he not " in absolute good shape in order to be a very strong third runner," in that race?
It doesn't mean he will come third or that he expects to come third - it means Ballmer saw the smartphone race for major market share as coming down to iOS, Android and one other system (in his belief, Win Pho 8). Being the third contestant != coming third.
I'm not debating the pros or cons of the various systems nor the likelihood of Ballmer's expectations coming true, I'm just tired of people misinterpreting what he said as statement that he thinks MS will come third (and frankly, from what I know about Ballmer, do you really believe he would think that, regardless?)