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Sorry, Apple-haters, but Cupertinian doom not on the horizon

Let's take a closer look at those 'disappointing' numbers, shall we?

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As these words are being typed, Apple's stock is taking a beating, down around 10 per cent from its $514.01 Wednesday close, in reaction to what Wall Street has clearly characterized as disappointing financial results for the first quarter of Apple's 2013 fiscal year.

May your humble Reg reporter take this opportunity to point those Wall Street moneymen at some of what Apple CEO Tim Cook rightly called "a lot of impressive numbers" during his conference call with reporters and analysts after the Q1 2013 number were released?

  • Quarterly revenue of $54.5bn, up 17.7 per cent from the $46.3bn earned in the same quarter last year
  • iPhone unit sales of 47.8 million, up 29.0 per cent from the 37.04 million sold during same quarter last year
  • iPad unit sales of 22.9 million, up 48.4 per cent from 15.43 million year-on-year
  • Reserves of $137.1bn, up 40.4 per cent from the $97.6bn it held in cash, short-term, and long-term securities at the same time last year

Even the most rock-ribbed Apple-hater must grudgingly agree with Cook that those numbers are indeed impressive.

The one number that seems to have especially spooked investors was Apple's net income for the first quarter of 2013, which it reported as a rounded figure of $13.1bn (the company's more detailed SEC filing won't be available until tomorrow, if tradition holds). During the same quarter last year, net income was $13.06bn. That figure, of course, rounds up to $13.1bn, but Apple's announcement of its Q1 2013 results refers to its most recent quarter as having "record quarterly net profit," so the figure must be at least a smidgen over the net profit during same quarter last year.

And that's where things get interesting. As Apple's CFO Peter Oppenheimer, who shared the call with Cook, pointed out, the quarter reported on Wednesday had 13 weeks; last year's Q1 had 14 weeks. "As such," Oppenheimer said, "average weekly revenue was $4.2bn in the current-year quarter, compared to $3.3bn in the year-ago quarter." That's a per-week revenue increase of 27.2 per cent.

Had Apple enjoyed another week of sales, that $13.1bn net income would almost certainly have been higher.

As Cook pointed out, other factors held down revenues, and therefore net income. A shortage of iMacs, for example. "We left the quarter with significant [his emphasis] constraints on the iMac," he said. "And we believe — we know – that our sales would have been materially higher if those constraint would not have existed."

Apple's stock reacts to Q1 2013 results (source: MarketWatch)

He also noted that sales of the iPhone 5, iPhone 4S, and iPad mini also suffered from supply constraints – there simply weren't enough to satisfy demand. Supplies of the iPhone 5 balanced demand near the end of the quarter, but the iPhone 4S and iPad mini were still constrained when the quarter came to a close.

Of course, balancing supply with carefully projected demand is one thing that keeps CEOs in their jobs, but we thought it useful to point out that Apple's sales would have been higher had Cook & Co. better managed that task.

Another factor played into the flat net income: the fact that Apple's gross margin for the just-completed quarter was 38.6 per cent, and in the year-ago quarter it was 44.7 per cent. As Oppenheimer explained, "The iPad mini gross margin is significantly below the corporate average." Even though the unexpectedly high popularity of the iPad's li'l brother caused a shortfall in supply – likely combined with other supply-chain problems neither Cook nor Oppenheimer discussed – it still sold enough units to bring down the overall quarterly gross margin.

Supplies of the iPhone 4S and iPad mini, Cook said, will balance with demand during the current quarter. "On iMac," he said, "we're confident that we're going to significantly increase the supply, but the demand here is very strong and we are not certain that we'll achieve a supply-demand balance during the quarter."

Seeing as how the iMac almost certainly has a considerably higher gross margin than the iPad mini and iPhone 4S, that shortage will likley depress Apple's gross margin figure for the current quarter. In fact, Apple projects gross margins during the current quarter to end up at between 37.5 percent and 38.5 percent – even lower that they were in the quarter reported on Wednesday.

That's sure to spook investors further, but with all of the other numbers in mind, we find ourselves agreeing with Robert Hof of Forbes, who wrote on Wednesday that "despite today's rampant doubts, it seems premature to assume Apple's long run is over."

Sorry, Apple-haters. ®

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Re: Mac sales decline is the problem

"Phone and tablet markets are far too volatile for such a large company to peg its future on,"

Oh OK. I guess they should be pegging their future on a product category that's now more than a quarter of a century old, declining rapidly, which Apple makes barely 10% of it's revenues on and which no other company in the market can make money in.

Tim Cook will be ringing for more advice any second now.

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Re: Mac sales decline is the problem

As much as I lament the de-emphasis of the Mac I can't help but notice their market share is still increasing against competitors (unlike you claim) but all computers that aren't phones or tablets are taking a hit.

I'd say the market at this point is Samsung and Apple. Even Dell looks to be losing out in this market... I mean they are solid in the data center but even Dell cites declining home sales as an excuse for their quarterly issues. And honestly, weren't home sales pretty much not important once Commodore and Atari gave up?

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Re: Mac sales decline is the problem

@Andy Prough

"and allowed OSX to be installed as a Windows replacement on x86 machines in order to dominate the desktop and laptop market when they had the chance"

And with that old, tired and incredibly stupid comment, you demolished your own credibility.

Apple uses its OS to sell Macs, on which it makes its money. A loss-leader in fact, and a great USP.

Microsoft (or 'Wintel' as you call them for some reason), make their money selling licenses for their OS on other people's hardware. They then make a huge amount of money selling software to run on that OS. It's Windows and Office licenses that keep Microsoft going, as most of the other things they do make very little or are huge loss-making black holes.

Why should Apple configure their OS to work successfully with the myriad of other computers, built by other people, for NO advantage? If they actually managed the feat (which in my opinion Microsoft has never achieved 100%) they would have had to indulge themselves in an on-going R&D effort that would cost billions. For NO advantage.

I'm sure some people have 'Market Share' tattooed on their todgers!

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