Feeds

Goldman Sachs: Windows' true market share is just 20%

Desktops are over, tablets and Smart TVs are in

Combat fraud and increase customer satisfaction

Windows might still be the dominant desktop computing OS by a large margin, but Microsoft is in danger of becoming a small player in today's global computing market, according to a new report from financial bigwigs Goldman Sachs.

The report, which was obtained last week by The Seattle Times, says that while Microsoft operating systems were found on 97 per cent of all computing devices as recently as 2000, Redmond's current share is just 20 per cent, thanks to the explosion of mobile devices in recent years.

Throw smartphones and tablets into the mix along with traditional laptops and PCs, and Google emerges as the current platform leader. Goldman estimates that the Chocolate Factory's Android OS is now installed on 42 per cent of all computing devices worldwide.

Coming in second place is Apple, which helps to explain its mammoth stock valuation. Between OS X and iOS, the fruity firm actually has more users than Windows does now, with 24 per cent of the overall device market.

Goldman analysts aren't particularly hopeful about Microsoft's chances of reviving its platform, either. Although they see Redmond recapturing some market share thanks to the introduction of Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8, they see Apple remaining the bigger player through 2016, at least.

"Microsoft faces an uphill battle (though not insurmountable) given it lacks meaningful share in either tablets or smartphones and as such will need to rely on its appeal to knowledge workers to help drive adoption as its complement ecosystem will remain behind the iOS and Android platforms at least over the next 6-12 months," the report breathlessly states.

Goldman Sachs chart showing platform market share over time

We've come a long way from Windows' glory days in the early 2000s (click to enlarge)

While Goldman Sachs predicts that the consumer PC market will remain flat in 2013, it believes tablets will be the key to the market in the coming years, with tablets helping to drive sales of devices in other form factors.

"If left without a meaningful competitor in tablets, we believe Apple's dominant share of tablets will act as an anchor that pulls its smartphone share ... steadily upward over time," the report says, noting that developing "a credible tablet" will be a must for Android's continued success, too.

That's not great news for Microsoft, though, if other recent predictions are to be believed. Just last week, analyst firm IDC estimated that Windows-based tablets would only account for 10 per cent of all tablets sold in 2016, with their current share a mere 2.6 per cent.

But the tech industry is a tricky thing, and Goldman Sachs is quick to point out that we may yet see still another device category emerge that could shake up the market just as much as tablets have.

Goldman's pick? Smart TVs, including standalone sets and devices such as Apple TV, Google TV, Roku, and Microsoft's own Xbox.

"We see [Smart TV] as having the potential to either further entrench current winners, such as Apple, or completely disrupt the market once again," the report says, adding that "consumers will match the platform of their more frequently purchased smartphones and tablets to the television they already own." ®

High performance access to file storage

More from The Register

next story
This time it's 'Personal': new Office 365 sub covers just two devices
Redmond also brings Office into Google's back yard
Batten down the hatches, Ubuntu 14.04 LTS due in TWO DAYS
Admins dab straining server brows in advance of Trusty Tahr's long-term support landing
Microsoft lobs pre-release Windows Phone 8.1 at devs who dare
App makers can load it before anyone else, but if they do they're stuck with it
Half of Twitter's 'active users' are SILENT STALKERS
Nearly 50% have NEVER tweeted a word
Internet-of-stuff startup dumps NoSQL for ... SQL?
NoSQL taste great at first but lacks proper nutrients, says startup cloud whiz
Windows 8.1, which you probably haven't upgraded to yet, ALREADY OBSOLETE
Pre-Update versions of new Windows version will no longer support patches
Microsoft TIER SMEAR changes app prices whether devs ask or not
Some go up, some go down, Redmond goes silent
Red Hat to ship RHEL 7 release candidate with a taste of container tech
Grab 'near-final' version of next Enterprise Linux next week
Ditch the sync, paddle in the Streem: Upstart offers syncless sharing
Upload, delete and carry on sharing afterwards?
prev story

Whitepapers

Designing a defence for mobile apps
In this whitepaper learn the various considerations for defending mobile applications; from the mobile application architecture itself to the myriad testing technologies needed to properly assess mobile applications risk.
3 Big data security analytics techniques
Applying these Big Data security analytics techniques can help you make your business safer by detecting attacks early, before significant damage is done.
Five 3D headsets to be won!
We were so impressed by the Durovis Dive headset we’ve asked the company to give some away to Reg readers.
The benefits of software based PBX
Why you should break free from your proprietary PBX and how to leverage your existing server hardware.
Securing web applications made simple and scalable
In this whitepaper learn how automated security testing can provide a simple and scalable way to protect your web applications.