Feeds

Analyst warns BlackBerry 10 won't be out until March

Still enough to beat off WinPhone 8 threat

Next gen security for virtualised datacentres

RIM's share price took another hit on Tuesday after a senior analyst warned investors that the Canadian firm's BlackBerry 10 operating system may not be out until March of next year.

"We had hoped for a Jan launch (guidance is for a CQ1 launch) but now see a March launch as more likely," said Jeffries and Co. analyst Peter Misek in a briefing note. "Also, our checks point to a tough Nov Q with replenishment rates decreasing as channel partners are cautious on holding RIM inventory."

Misek added that RIM was unlikely to be able to get third-party manufacturers like Samsung and HTC licensing the operating system for handsets until after the launch was ready, which will further slow deployment. With such a delay, channel partners are unlikely to invest in any more BlackBerry 7 handsets, which will erode the company's bottom line.

That would leave RIM dependent on its $2.3bn cash pile to make up any shortfall in revenues, but Misek predicts it will need up to a billion of that just to manufacture enough handsets to launch the new operating system and pay off developers.

The report isn’t just bad news for RIM, however. In a rather cutting analysis, Misek said that even this delay wouldn’t erode the Canadian firm's position enough for Microsoft to capitalize on its weakness and grab the number three spot in the market with Windows Phone 8.

"We still believe a third ecosystem will emerge, but the probability of BB10 filling the role is wholly dependent on whether RIM can convince Samsung, Huawei, and ZTE to license," he notes.

"Baidu, Huawei, and others are pursuing their own operating systems. We also see Win 8 as somewhat of a threat but conflicting reviews, less-than-stellar developer feedback, and a desire by Microsoft to make hardware directly make Win 8 unlikely to have better odds at becoming the third ecosystem than the previously mentioned new entrants, in our view."

Still, the news hit RIM's share price, which had been rallying after not-quite-as-bad-as-expected financial results announced last month. The stock is now on its way back down to around $7.80, although Misek forecast a fair guide price of $5 in his note. ®

Next gen security for virtualised datacentres

More from The Register

next story
6 Obvious Reasons Why Facebook Will Ban This Article (Thank God)
Clampdown on clickbait ... and El Reg is OK with this
So, Apple won't sell cheap kit? Prepare the iOS garden wall WRECKING BALL
It can throw the low cost race if it looks to the cloud
EE fails to apologise for HUGE T-Mobile outage that hit Brits on Friday
Customer: 'Please change your name to occasionally somewhere'
Time Warner Cable customers SQUEAL as US network goes offline
A rude awakening: North Americans greeted with outage drama
We need less U.S. in our WWW – Euro digital chief Steelie Neelie
EC moves to shift status quo at Internet Governance Forum
BT customers face broadband and landline price hikes
Poor punters won't be affected, telecoms giant claims
prev story

Whitepapers

5 things you didn’t know about cloud backup
IT departments are embracing cloud backup, but there’s a lot you need to know before choosing a service provider. Learn all the critical things you need to know.
Implementing global e-invoicing with guaranteed legal certainty
Explaining the role local tax compliance plays in successful supply chain management and e-business and how leading global brands are addressing this.
Backing up Big Data
Solving backup challenges and “protect everything from everywhere,” as we move into the era of big data management and the adoption of BYOD.
Consolidation: The Foundation for IT Business Transformation
In this whitepaper learn how effective consolidation of IT and business resources can enable multiple, meaningful business benefits.
High Performance for All
While HPC is not new, it has traditionally been seen as a specialist area – is it now geared up to meet more mainstream requirements?