IDC: Trying to flog PCs? It's not going to happen
Box counter slashes sales forecasts... Windows 8 not following the script
Market analyst IDC now expects fewer PCs will be sold in 2012 than it had earlier predicted. The box-counter has also revised down its estimate for PC sales over the next four years.
The world-wide PC market for desktops and portables will grow just 0.9 per cent during 2012, 367 million units, as mid-year shipments slow down, the number cruncher has said. IDC tracks tablets separately.
That’s a major drop: IDC in June anticipated 5 per cent growth for 2012.
Shipments between 2013 to 2016 will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1 per cent, down from the forecast 8.4 per cent for 2012 – 2016, the IDC said.
The analyst cited slowing growth in Asia/Pacific and saturation in mature markets such as the US – combined with cautious spending thanks to the economic slowdown – as the reasons behind its revised outlook.
Even the normally lucrative back-to-school shopping season looks like it will be providing little relief for PC makers. David Daoud, IDC's personal computing research director, said in a statement: “The third-quarter back to school season is also proving to be a challenging period, despite prices dropping to their lowest levels.”
Consumers and businesses are holding out on hardware renewals, with Windows 8 the great unknown. Following the pattern of past release cycles, channel companies are clearing their books of Windows-7 based stock. But the new Windows 8 UI could help rob suppliers of the usual post-Windows-launch sales spike as consumers struggle with the new interface.
Daoud said: "Factors such as Windows 8 coupled with Ultrabooks could present a positive turn of events next year, but it also faces some initial hurdles – chief of which is that buyers must acclimate themselves to an operating system that is a dramatic departure from existing PC paradigms.” ®
Yes, we all know all MS really did was remove that pesky start button, nothing else changed at all...
The quality of fanbois comment has declined far below 'pathetically out of touch with reality' well before Win8 even launches.
Power users are going to just bypass all the new crap while subconsciously downgrading support for MS products. Ordinary and new users are going to wonder WTF just happened when Win8 switches UI modes, wonder WTF the controls are hidden in Metro. The missing Start menu will be the least of their worries.
Lets see...if the big USP of W8 is the touch interface, then surely everyone is waiting for the manufacturers to release a PC which actually has a touchscreen?
I know some are available now, but Joe Punter doesn't care...all he knows is that with the W8 sticker on the front, he "knows" his future W8 PC will have a touchscreen...
And thus the whole EPIC FAIL of METRO and W8 strategy is revealed...
How many items do you have pinned in the task bar? Do you ever close a program?
Personally, I live by the start button and a personal start menu of about a dozen programs. I'm in and out of them a hundred times/day.
Roll on, Raspberry Pi
With a bit of luck the back to school market will be swamped with Raspberries. Assumming they can build them fast enough. Then we may get some children with a decent background in computing instead of how to operate Word and Excel.
They are wrong about 2013 and on
The PC market is in permanent slow decline. Tablets will take the place of PCs for a large number of people with simple needs (email, facebook and browsing) who formerly had no choice but to get a PC to serve these needs. You know, the people who bought their first PC so they could use those free CDs that AOL kept mailing out. They will also replace some PCs in multi-PC households. Tablets are more portable than even the lightest Ultrabook, less prone (at least today) to malware, and being simpler in their functionality are also more user friendly in their operation.
Tablets don't replace PCs for the types of people who read the Reg, but they do for the types of people who closely follow the latest celebrity gossip.