Nokia on 'brink of failure', warns analyst
Prepare Plan B
Nokia's comeback will fail unless Microsoft pulls its finger out, according to one analyst. Ian Fogg of IHS isn't isn't optimistic, however, and recommends the Finns develop a Plan 'B' - in case Windows Phone fails to crack the Android-Apple duopoly.
Fogg commends Nokia for a strong comeback product range in the shape of its Windows Phone-powered Lumias. But, he cautions: "Nokia's problem is that Microsoft appears to have stood still. A year-and-a-half after Windows Phone 7's debut, it has changed little. In effect, the gap in features between Windows Phone and Android or the iPhone has widened and not shrunk as Nokia needed it to."
Unless volumes are achieved in Q2, smartphone developers will begin to drift away, say the analysts. "With US failure, Nokia will be locked out of the premium part of the US handset market, again, and Windows Phone will need a complete rethink."
Microsoft can hardly be accused of delinquency, but it is beginning to look worryingly like a team content to rest on its laurels. The Metro designers are frightfully pleased with themselves – and can't stop telling the world how their new UI is fresh and exciting and different and fast. So, we recall, was BeOS... and that wasn't enough.
Fogg may have underestimated the developer issue. What most Nokia-watchers appear to be unaware of is that for developers, breakage lies ahead. The three bedrock components of Windows Phone 7x – the Embedded CE kernel, the Compact .NET framework and Silverlight – are all being cast aside. Windows 8 Apollo will share the same kernel as Windows 8. What third-party developers are supposed to do is not clear. Will all today's applications break? Will there be a legacy runtime? What source-conversion tools will be available? Even key Nokia sources don't know the answer to these questions yet.
And as Fogg says, developers are key. Stephen Elop has done as much as any CEO could in transforming Nokia's culture in a short space of time. But Nokia's comeback is now entirely in the hands of a few key Microsoft system architects and programmers. They need to reassure the market – a job Metro's designers are not in a position to do. ®
COMMENTS
On the brink?
On the brink of failure? So, their position has improved that much, huh?
If Nokia can pull out of this dive, then Dr. Hawking is going to have to re-write a great deal of our current understanding of black holes and the event horizons thereof.
Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something
"Stephen Elop has done as much as any CEO could in transforming Nokia's culture in a short space of time"
That's nonsense, had Nokia taken the Android route, they could i'm sure be pushing out decent, affordable smartphones that are different from the rest.
Instead, they are lumbered with mediocre Windows Phone, with no developer support, another burning platform, and the problem that all Windows Phones are basically the same, as the OS is so uncustomisable (either by the end user, or the integrator), there is zero differentiation, aside from some coloured plastic bumpers.
Elop was never interested in what Nokia needed, nor what Nokia's customers wanted, he was only interested in what Microsoft wanted. That's is obvious to everyone.
And this is why everyone is dropping shares like the shitty stick.
Re: Nokia are doomed, but Elop could have done something
Elop is ex-Microsoft. No way would Andorid be considered. The shareolders voted him in, they should have known what would happen. It's like appointing an ex-Accenture CIO and then being amazed at an influx of Accenture consultants arriving to work on projects at £2500 a day.
The share price will dive, Microsoft or someone else will buy them for a pittance. If Microsoft buy them then Nokia will end up the same way as Zune. The XBOX is Microsoft's only hardware success and it's basically a PC. RIM could buy them, Nokia know how to make good hardware.
Nokia RIP. My 6310i was a great phone. It did things my iPhone can't (e.g. be on silent until 5pm and then use a loud ringtone). It wasn't a computer, so my battery lasted all week.
When even MS drones whinge about Windows Phone you know its on a hiding to nothing. You can get a more credible 'smartphone' buying a second hand Touch Pro/Diamond and putting the hosts UI on it, oh look its free. All the Windows Phone tilegasms, less of the monumental bugs. Or you could have Point UI, thats free too, and the steampunk theme is great.
I said months ago that bad bugs could be a problem... Oh look, they are.
I said months ago that all Symbian needed was a UI makeover... Oh look, its getting hugs and people are wondering why its being killed. Why? They gave it a UI makeover.
Can someone tell me where to go to get a cushy job spouting the bleeding obvious please?
I connect up my E7 to a bluetooth kb, a mouse through USB, tv through HDMI or analogue/SCART & 99% of the things I can do on my laptop I can do just as well on my SYMBIAN phone, with the 680mhz processor, and the nHD, and the confusing-to-americans OS... Not to mention a full sound system through HDMI too if I want to listen to music...
And lookee ma, I still manage a days battery life!
Mr Elop, here is my advice. Take Lumia phone hardware, put Belle on them, walk away from Windows Phone. Nokia might just make it.
Go and look at AAS april fools phone - the E7-10 - E7 + N8 camera, FM transmitter & a sodding REMOVABLE battery/microSD! Build it and they will come, 60+ comments all wanting one.
Plus with Belle, Mr Elop, you wont be making a $200 loss on every one you sell. Whats not to like about profit?
You do know what profit is right...?
Too soon...?
Well duh? Developers are taking a wait-and-see approach, and can you blame them? The CF and Silverlight were obvious choices for mobile development - and they were dropped. I'm wary of investing in Metro when, looking at history, chances are it will be discontinued in a few years anyway. I don't even trust HTML5/JS very much at this point. Microsoft needs to stop behaving like a kid with ADD.
