Feeds

Nokia on 'brink of failure', warns analyst

Prepare Plan B

High performance access to file storage

Nokia's comeback will fail unless Microsoft pulls its finger out, according to one analyst. Ian Fogg of IHS isn't isn't optimistic, however, and recommends the Finns develop a Plan 'B' - in case Windows Phone fails to crack the Android-Apple duopoly.

Fogg commends Nokia for a strong comeback product range in the shape of its Windows Phone-powered Lumias. But, he cautions: "Nokia's problem is that Microsoft appears to have stood still. A year-and-a-half after Windows Phone 7's debut, it has changed little. In effect, the gap in features between Windows Phone and Android or the iPhone has widened and not shrunk as Nokia needed it to."

Unless volumes are achieved in Q2, smartphone developers will begin to drift away, say the analysts. "With US failure, Nokia will be locked out of the premium part of the US handset market, again, and Windows Phone will need a complete rethink."

Microsoft can hardly be accused of delinquency, but it is beginning to look worryingly like a team content to rest on its laurels. The Metro designers are frightfully pleased with themselves – and can't stop telling the world how their new UI is fresh and exciting and different and fast. So, we recall, was BeOS... and that wasn't enough.

Fogg may have underestimated the developer issue. What most Nokia-watchers appear to be unaware of is that for developers, breakage lies ahead. The three bedrock components of Windows Phone 7x – the Embedded CE kernel, the Compact .NET framework and Silverlight – are all being cast aside. Windows 8 Apollo will share the same kernel as Windows 8. What third-party developers are supposed to do is not clear. Will all today's applications break? Will there be a legacy runtime? What source-conversion tools will be available? Even key Nokia sources don't know the answer to these questions yet.

And as Fogg says, developers are key. Stephen Elop has done as much as any CEO could in transforming Nokia's culture in a short space of time. But Nokia's comeback is now entirely in the hands of a few key Microsoft system architects and programmers. They need to reassure the market – a job Metro's designers are not in a position to do. ®

High performance access to file storage

More from The Register

next story
Report: Apple seeking to raise iPhone 6 price by a HUNDRED BUCKS
'Well, that 5c experiment didn't go so well – let's try the other direction'
Microsoft lobs pre-release Windows Phone 8.1 at devs who dare
App makers can load it before anyone else, but if they do they're stuck with it
Zucker punched: Google gobbles Facebook-wooed Titan Aerospace
Up, up and away in my beautiful balloon flying broadband-bot
Nvidia gamers hit trifecta with driver, optimizer, and mobile upgrades
Li'l Shield moves up to Android 4.4.2 KitKat, GameStream comes to notebooks
AMD unveils Godzilla's graphics card – 'the world's fastest, period'
The Radeon R9 295X2: Water-cooled, 5,632 stream processors, 11.5TFLOPS
Sony battery recall as VAIO goes out with a bang, not a whimper
The perils of having Panasonic as a partner
NORKS' own smartmobe pegged as Chinese landfill Android
Fake kit in the hermit kingdom? That's just Kim Jong-un-believable!
Gimme a high S5: Samsung Galaxy S5 puts substance over style
Biometrics and kid-friendly mode in back-to-basics blockbuster
prev story

Whitepapers

Securing web applications made simple and scalable
In this whitepaper learn how automated security testing can provide a simple and scalable way to protect your web applications.
Five 3D headsets to be won!
We were so impressed by the Durovis Dive headset we’ve asked the company to give some away to Reg readers.
HP ArcSight ESM solution helps Finansbank
Based on their experience using HP ArcSight Enterprise Security Manager for IT security operations, Finansbank moved to HP ArcSight ESM for fraud management.
The benefits of software based PBX
Why you should break free from your proprietary PBX and how to leverage your existing server hardware.
Mobile application security study
Download this report to see the alarming realities regarding the sheer number of applications vulnerable to attack, as well as the most common and easily addressable vulnerability errors.