Analyst eyes Q3 2013 for Xbox 720 release
Seller of pre-owned games spins against disc-less console
Microsoft's next Xbox console will launch in Q3 2013 and, contrary to widespread rumours, will not be a download-only platform, one analyst reckons.
"Although not yet confirmed by Microsoft, we believe the next generation Xbox console could launch in the fall of 2013," said Doug Creutz, a soothsayer at Cowan & Company, a stockbroker, in a research note circulated this morning.
The analyst reckons a digital-only Xbox would pose far too many risks to Microsoft's market share, and any attempt to kill off the used games market would be damaging to the industry's ecosystem.
"We do believe that Microsoft may be targeting a cheaper physical solution in an effort to get the initial price of the box down and speed up new console adoption, which would be bullish for software publishers," he claimed.
US retail giant GameStop seconded the notion at an earnings call today, after head honcho Paul Raines said it was improbable that the Redmond firm would block the use of secondhand games.
"We think it's unlikely that there would be that [used-game blocking] next-gen console because the model simply hasn't been proven," he said, talking up the value of used games to the industry.
"Remember that GameStop generates $1.2bn of trade credits around the world with our used-game model. So, consider taking used games out of that, you'd have to find new ways to sell the games."
But to say otherwise would be like a Turkey voting for Christmas.
Indeed, earlier this week, David Braben stuck the knife into the second-hand games market, asserting it damages innovative single-player development.
And there is a model for a vibrant games business that doesn't involve secondhand sales: the iTunes App Store and Google Play. That's surely more likely to influence Microsoft's thinking than the pleading of retailers of pre-owned product. ®
What the hell differentiates an analyst from a bloke down the pub talking to his mates on the same subject? Serious question! Do people get paid for their "analysis"? By whom?
downloads are coming
Surely anyone can see that? The reason it hasnt taken off yet is volume of data in my opinion, but there are two factors changing this - 1, broadband speeds are increasing and 2, most games demand you regularly download several hundred meg updates anyway so whats the point in owning a physical disk when all it kindof is is a bootloader to prompt you to download anyway?!
The irony is, that its likely that someone will rescue Game, in the next few days, only for the market to change and for them to go backrupt again in a year or twos time.
Apples and Oranges
You can't directly compare a £40 xbox game with something on the iphone that sells for 99p. Xbox live would be a much better comparison with app stores.
"But to say otherwise would be like a Turkey voting for Christmas."
^ Made me laugh.
However, I'm not sure what these analysts are on. Are they just saying 2013 now because MS have come out and said it won't be 2012? If it doesn't come out in 2013, will they revise their prediction to 2014?
I happen to think they're right about a 2013 release date (although I think 2014 is possible), and about the download-only rumours being incorrect, but if they are right, it will be due to a mixture of dumb luck, coincidence and the fact that anyone with an ounce of common sense can look at the market and see *roughly* where it is going as accurately as any paid analyst.
In response to Bonces question further up te thread, I believe the only differentiation between the analysts and the bloke down the pub is that the analyst is being paid and possibly writing his analysis down. Personally, I would trust analysis from the bloke in the pub more.
Re: downloads are coming
What's weird, is wen Sony did this, Microsoft told the Internet that it was a bad thing, now Microsoft are doing it......