Tim Cook's post-PC iPad domination dream crushed by reality
Gartner reckons 400 million desktops will shift in 2013
Apple CEO Cook dreams of a world in which fondleslabs not only outsell PCs but render them irrelevant. These stats suggest otherwise.
Gartner Research Director Ranjit Atwal predicts that 368 million PC units will be sold in 2012, an increase of 4.4 per cent from 2011. By his calculations, the market will grow to 400 million units in 2013.
Apple flogged 40.57 million iPads in the year ending 31 December 2011, according to its quarterly reports. The slabs have eaten into the PC market, Cook boasted last night and claimed Apple sold more iPads in the last three months of 2011 than any PC manufacturer sold of its computers.
Meanwhile the big driver for PC sales will be demand from the developing world, Atwal said: "Emerging markets are key to driving worldwide PC growth in both the short and long-term." And that's growing very quickly.
Our expectation is that 2012 and then 2013 onwards will be supported by growth in emerging markets as their share increases from just over 50 percent in 2011 to nearly 70 percent in 2016. Emerging markets have very low PC penetration and even with the availability of other devices we still expect a steady uptake of PCs.
Fondleslab-pushing Apple execs aside, other PC doomsayers include Ray Ozzie, inventor of Lotus Notes and the guy chosen by Bill Gates to lead innovation in Microsoft – which just released its tablet-friendly Windows 8 preview. He seemed to be singing off the same hymn sheet as Cook, telling a Geekwire conference yesterday:
People argue about "are we in a post-PC world?" Why are we arguing? Of course we are in a post-PC world. That doesn't mean the PC dies, that just means that the scenarios that we use them in, we stop referring to them as PCs, we refer to them as other things.
But whatever we call them looks like several hundred million of them will be sold in the next two years. ®
Enough iPad articles
Isn't it enough? I can't really read two articles by Anna Leach mentioning the iPad on the same day.
Make me think the Register is beginning to sound like The Onion:
Read this as "post PC-domination" and suddenly it starts to make sense.
I think it's fairly obvious that smartphones and tablets *are* replacing PCs for many home/casual users (who can afford this) and even for quite a few business users. This will lead to the PC finally being degraded to what it actually always was: Office machinery. Nothing wrong with this, really.
That's how I see Pads of any brand. Lighter to lug about than a laptop/ultrabook/netbook on your travels with a decent resolution and good battery life, enhanced by the convenience of WiFi Hotspots and 3G when and where needed.
However the PC will always be the workhorse for most, we use them to download and convert media like MP3's and video content into manageable formats and file sizes to compliment the Pads and Smartphones. It's all about storage capacity and believe you me, a 2TB hard disk is more convenient than a deck of SD cards.
Again the "Office" applications will come into the fray too, there are Office'esque apps for Pads, but what's available is better for editing and presenting content that's usually generated on a PC.
The no brainer is gaming, Pad based games aren't too shabby but they cannot compare to the mid-range to high end gaming PC or laptop. Remember, not everyone enjoys the console.
I don't foresee the PC being replaced by the 'fondeslabs' but remember that "most" Pad owners do in fact own a PC [or Mac] too, so if anything Pads may well eat a little more into laptop sales.
Re: Well it could take us into the post PC era
The iPad is designed to be a glorified Tivo. No matter how many people like to pretend otherwise, such a machine is not a PC. It will not replace PCs due to lack of basic features and the fact that the tech is in control of the users.
"Perfection" means something different to everyone.
When has Gartner been right about their forecast?..... ever.