Feeds

2016: Death of the wallet as NFC tap-cash arrives at last

Or is it 2014? Analysts bicker over e-cash future

Boost IT visibility and business value

Forrester research reckons 2016 will be the year when electronic cash takes off, thanks to PayPal, but over at ABI they're saying 2014 will see Google Wallet filling virtual pockets.

Forrester's research is based on conversations with 10 "senior executives", while the ABI prediction comes from its "Mobile Wallet Strategies" advice to companies on how to cope with the forthcoming change to our pockets' change. Everyone agrees the wireless payment revolution is coming and cash will go electronic – they only disagree on when it will happen and who will end up controlling our electronic wallets.

It's happy coincidence that Forrester's research, which was funded by PayPal, predicts a later date for users to start paying with a wave of the phone in abundance. PayPal doesn’t have an offering in the space so could do with the time. In America it's using existing phone technology for its cloud-based payment service, which is also available in the UK – but only at PizzaExpress.

The 2016 start date should give companies time to embrace Near-Field Communications (NFC) payments that allow for secure communication between the phone and the reader, without involving the cloud.

Google Wallet, meanwhile, is already in use and making payments, and ABI predicts that Apple will enter the game next year altering the field of play significantly. ABI reckons that's very bad news for the network operators, who still want ownership of the electronic wallet even if they've relinquished dreams of owning the payment mechanisms too.

Here at The Reg we've already bought cookies with a wave of an Orange Quick Tap handset, but while ABI reckons mobile operators will own 75 per cent of the electronic wallets next year, the company also predicts that number will drop to 63 per cent by 2016. That's assuming Google Wallet, and Apple's offering, start to eat into the market.

Apple's entry, if it comes next year, will be a significant deal, but so too will be the London Olympics. Visa is sponsoring the games, and will be launching a special handset with Samsung geared around its PayWave (NFC-compatible) platform. So expect to see everything in the games (with the exception of the tickets) using PayWave transactions and NFC security.

That could have a significant impact, as shoppers are reluctant to use pay-by-wave until they've seen someone else doing it. PayPal would like 2016 to be the year we all give up on our cash, as Forrester predicts, but if we're prepared to sell our souls to Google, Apple or our network operators (rather than PayPal) then it could happen a good deal sooner. ®

Seven Steps to Software Security

More from The Register

next story
Scotland's BIG question: Will independence cost me my broadband?
They can take our lives, but they'll never take our SPECTRUM
Bring back error correction, say Danish 'net boffins
We don't need no steenkin' TCP/IP retransmission and the congestion it causes
Auntie remains MYSTIFIED by that weekend BBC iPlayer and website outage
Still doing 'forensics' on the caching layer – Beeb digi wonk
NBN Co adds apartments to FTTP rollout
Commercial trial locations to go live in September
Samsung Z Tizen OS mobe is post-phoned – this time for good?
Russian launch for Sammy's non-droid knocked back
Telstra to KILL 2G network by end of 2016
GSM now stands for Grave-Seeking-Mobile network
Seeking LTE expert to insert small cells into BT customers' places
Is this the first step to a FON-a-like 4G network?
What FTC lawsuit? T-Mobile US touts 10GB, $100 family-of-4 plan
Folks 'could use that money for more important things' says CEO Legere
prev story

Whitepapers

Implementing global e-invoicing with guaranteed legal certainty
Explaining the role local tax compliance plays in successful supply chain management and e-business and how leading global brands are addressing this.
Consolidation: The Foundation for IT Business Transformation
In this whitepaper learn how effective consolidation of IT and business resources can enable multiple, meaningful business benefits.
Application security programs and practises
Follow a few strategies and your organization can gain the full benefits of open source and the cloud without compromising the security of your applications.
How modern custom applications can spur business growth
Learn how to create, deploy and manage custom applications without consuming or expanding the need for scarce, expensive IT resources.
Securing Web Applications Made Simple and Scalable
Learn how automated security testing can provide a simple and scalable way to protect your web applications.