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Apple to out-ship HP in 2012, say pundits

In mobile computers, at least

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Apple will next year out-ship HP - if only when it comes to mobile computers - it has been forecast.

The catch, you'll have already guessed, is that media tablet sales have to be included in the total.

Unnamed pundits cited by DigiTimes say Apple could ship 15m MacBooks in 2012. And on a forecast 60m iPads - 75 per cent of the 80m total - and that's Apple mobile shipments of 75m units.

That's a significant figure, but HP, having shipped 40m notebooks in 2010 is expected to ship 45-50m this year, according to the same sources, growth of 12.5 per cent minimum. Even with modest year-on-year growth there - plus sales of the just-launched TouchPad tablet - it's going to be a close-run race.

A consistent year-on-year increase of 12.5 per cent would have HP shipping just over 50m notebooks in 2012. It then needs only tell 15m tablets - 19 per cent of the anticipated market - to beat Apple.

In Q1 2011. According to market watcher Canalys, Apple shipped just under 8.5m iPads and Macs, both portable and desktop. HP shipped almost 14.7m netbooks, notebooks and desktop PCs.

Q2 numbers won't be in for several weeks, but it's hard to imagine that Apple won't increase its market share - up from 9.5 per cent in Q1 - even if it doesn't push past Dell, Acer or HP.

As for Q3, Apple is said to be anticipating shipments of 12-14m iPad 2, having worked its supply chain well in Q2 to ensure it has enough parts to produce sufficient pads for the new quarter.

If Apple does indeed plan to announce the iPad 3 in September, possibly with a view to commencing shipments in October, it will want to maximise iPad 2 sales ahead of the launch. And that is what appears to be happening. ®

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