Interesting but is it real analysis?

Yes, Apple are at or near the top of the curve. But this article is filled with wishful thinking rather than hard analysis. The below expected results this quarter for iPad sales are in no way a reflection dissappointing performance in the market. Nor do they reflect an over-estimation of the value or attractiveness of the post PC tablet Market. They reflect only supply chain logistical constraints and (at worst) planning failures and it is churlish to attempt to present the iPad as anything other than the runaway success it is. So using that to support the picture of Apple desperate and rounding the apex of the curve is wishfull thinking on the authors part rather than a reflection of a true weakness. Yes resorting to patents can be viewed as desperation, and certainly that has been the case for other companies in the past, but without independent indicators of desperation, that too reveals a picture the author would like to see rather than what he knows to be the case. It can also just be Apple leveraging money invested in filing IPR.

The other "indication Apple are struggling" the author uses is Apple's current "failure" to deliver a cloud music play. But this analysis lacks wisdom or insight, as there are compelling strategic partnership reasons why Apple would want to be second to the party. In summary, their form on strategic partnership indicates that while they push out technologies that unlock the market, they never rub their content partners faces in it. So they contractually ensured unlimited data (probably at the cost of a exclusivity deal with AT&T) because they saw the strategic value of ensuring the iPhone was used without data constraint. But they then didn't do Internet Tethering or allow Skype calls until after their competitors (even though they could have allowed both from the outset) because they saw the value of keeping their carrier partners (globally and not just in the US) on board. Similarly they have very strong reasons for being second to the Cloud Music Streaming party to avoid annoying their iTunes partners. Amazon is currently drawing very strong legal fire from the record labels, while Apple can now fairly say to their partners, we need to also move into music streaming to compete. Apple purchased a functioning music streaming service some time ago, so there is circumstantial evidence adding to the strategic form-book, supporting the position that the delay is a matter of policy.

The author indicates Apple are "desperate" on the basis their competitors are planning to launch new cloud based services now and implies Apple are failing to reply. Yet Apple (unlike their competitors) have consistently shown discipline in avoiding either revealing or "bigging-up" future product launches and the strategy works very well for them. It's highly unlikely, with their cash pile and history of delivery, that they have anything but a very rich and queued up pipeline of new launches.

Also the criticism of Apple as a "one trick peony" couldn't be further from the truth. Compare with their arch-rival Google and there you really do see - on the key criterion of revenue generation - a one trick peony. Everything, including their reported revenues for Android and YouTube (which are still proportionately very low) stems from their core advertising business. And no doubt much of the revenues that should really be attributed to search advertising are re-classified as YouTube and Android advertising success (e.g. when the ads in-situ in YouTube and Android are hit one step on from a Google search). I don't want this response to sound like a slanging match placing Apple over Google but it is important to reflect the mis-analysis inherent in the use of the "One trick peony" label. Google are making a strategic play, but they don't yet have real diversified revenue streams. Apple have multiple distinct product lines (iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPods and Mac Computers, Software) albeit united by a single ecosystem (which is a strength) and all contribute to earning real share of revenue (and notice I didn't need to resort to including iTunes or App Store).

I do agree with the author that Apple are at or near the top of the curve. However not for the reasons the author has given. I believe it for the simple reason it is difficult to see how they can continue to have an uninterrupted line of successful products that keep them as far ahead of the competition as they have been over the past three years. So my reasoning is based on respect and the slight cynicism we all as human beings have. I respect the success Apple have had. I wonder how it can continue, but equally I don't rule out further successes being launched this year or next (the Apple product secrecy point remember). I suspect the Author actually agrees with me too but rather than finding solid indicators Apple have reached the Apex of the curve, he/she has sought to write a post seeking tap in to our natural cynicism and play on the incredulity we most of us have, pretty much in equal measure. It makes for a good headline but doesn't make for insightful analysis. But then TheRegister majors in cynicism and there's always a place for that.