Analyst cuts PC sales forecast, blames iPad
Consumers buying tablets, making computers last longer
Market watcher Gartner has pruned its forecast world personal computer sales growth this year and next, knocking nearly four percentage points off its 2010 prediction. The reason? The iPad.
And, to be fair, other such media tablets, though the Apple offering has been the key seller in 2010.
In September, Gartner forecast that 2010's PC sales would be 17.9 per cent higher than they were in 2009. Now it reckons growth with be 14.3 per cent.
Likewise, the year-on-year growth in 2011 will be 15.9 per cent, the researcher now reckons, down from an earlier forecast of 18.1 per cent.
Looking at the unit forecasts, that means some 352.4m PCs will ship this year, down from the 363.5m Gartner was previously expecting to record. That's an 11.1m difference, which is a heck of a lot of iPads plus the odd Samsung Galaxy Tab.
Gartner did say the decline does "reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer demand", but stressed that this dip in consumer interest in PCs was "due in no small part to growing user interest in media tablets such as the iPad".
The researcher believes tablets are complementary to personal computers, but the fact remains that, for a lot of folk, buying one of the former means they feel a lot less inclined to upgrade the latter, and that must have an impact on PC sales.
Gartner added that the economic gloom is dissuading consumers from making new computer purchases too, but it's interesting that the difference between the company's two 2010 PC unit shipment forecasts comes very close indeed to what a lot of other analysts have been forecasting for this year's iPad sales tally. ®
malware.. and consumer lazyness / ignorance
"there isn't a compelling reason to upgrade a 3-4 year old PC anymore"
Whilst I'd agree with that statement for the average reg reader, for the average joe on the street after 3-4 years their laptop running windows is so full of bloat / malware and the disk so fragmented that it runs like an absoloute slug..
A mate of mine had a 2 or 3 year old acer laptop that he'd decided needed replacing since he'd picked up a virus.. I took a look at it and came to the conclusion that while his windoze installation was pretty much screwed to the point that it needed abandoning, a clean install of windows or any linux distro would render it fully functional again.. I offered to restore it for him (for free) but he decided he wanted to buy a new laptop anyway and I got a free computer.
As far as I can tell while his new machine has more ram, a faster processor, decent battery and is a bit lighter / shinier I doubt it really is £400 worth of improvement in performance on his old machine (with a clean non bloated OS) for surfing the web / emailing, skyping and watching downloaded movies on.
In a way I think microsoft is happy about the amount of malware on machines because so many consumers would rather just buy a new machine (and therefore new windows license too) rather than fix / pay someone to fix the one they've got.
Can't tell you how many times this has happened over the years.
Luser: "I need a new PC, this one is too slow"
Me: "<clicky-click> You just need to reload your Windows, it happens all the time. I can do it for you if you like."
Luser: "I'll think about it"
Me: "How is that PC going anyway?"
Luser: "Oh, that? I decided to buy a new one"
I gave up on this a few years back. It's simply not worth the trouble. I might offer to put Linux on there instead depending on their relationship to me but when it comes to Windoze they are on their own.
Not sure I agree with them..
It wouldn't be because there isn't a compelling reason to upgrade a 3-4 year old PC anymore, because most things work 'just fine'?
Netbooks sold like crazy a couple of years ago, and they're *REAL* slow compared to my 3 year old mid-low end PC.