Hmmm....

Pardon me if I sound cranky, but...the desktop isn't dead and it's not going to be any time soon. There are a couple of problems, both with web based services and the hardware that provides access to them. I don't know that either set of problems can be fully overcome.

Although the technologies have changed, the concept of people wanting a real live computer hasn't. The computer has, of course, changed shape as mobile phones, tablets and whatever else have gained processing power and shrunken in size. Even so, the desktop (and laptop) computer with local applications in place still dominate the computing scene because there are just some things that are better at large amounts of entry than others. Unless you had an external keyboard, I dare say that you'd rather not type your great novel on an iPad. All of that is pretty well known.

History also shows that despite repeated attempts, terminals and thin clients that pull their computing resources from afar haven't really been successful after the personal computer made the scene. And for all of the improvements in technology today, I don't see this changing. This also seems to be pretty well known and (I'd dare say) accepted.

If anything, the interoperability of software has improved and the OS has paled in terms of importance. It used to be that I had to buy a certain type of computer and operating system to run a given program. Today the operating system has paled in importance, as it should have. I don't think this has quite as much to do with the web as it does with the advent of software that's of high quality and readily available cross-platform. I finally can reasonably say that a lot of the software I want to use is available on whatever platform I might have.

Maybe I missed something, but I thought that the best thing Microsoft /could/ say about Windows 7 is that "This time, Windows actually works!" Apple said long ago that Mac OS 10.6 was going to be a quality improvement release, paving the way for future generations and giving them the chance to clear out some accumulated junk.

I don't fully trust Google. I don't trust Facebook at all, and refuse to use their services. In fact, I don't fully trust any web based service with all the things I'd normally store locally. Why, then, would I want to entrust the things on my computer, things that I created myself--some of which should ideally or must remain private--to a third party? I don't know what Google does to keep data secure, and I don't place it beyond them to look at the things stored within their network, even if it's only in the course of an employee doing their job. I do know that even the best of web applications developers can't see every possible hole or flaw, and that they are competing against a nearly immeasurable audience of people who will try to pry where they should not to see what secrets the system will give up.

(Whew! Sometimes even a Model M needs a break...)

All of that says nothing about what happens when your connection to the 'net goes down and you need your data.

And *that* is why the desktop computer, with its local storage, applications and memory isn't going anywhere any time soon. Web based services have their use, but I maintain that they are not and can never be a 100% replacement for the full fledged computer and locally installed application. It's more a (sizeable) niche that will appear in the market than a "win".

Your Head In The Cloud

Ah ... no.

The problem with depending on the Web for everything is a matter of trust. Do you really trust these people with your data? With your day-to-day operation? I'm sorry, but I don't. Microsoft, Apple, Google, et al are all cut from the same cloth, willing to sell their own grandmothers (or your privacy) for a buck. I trust nobody but myself to look after my own interests. I keep multiple layers of paranoia between myself and the Web in general, and multinational, multi-billion dollar corporations in particular. And don't get me started on how far any *government* can be trusted.

The bottom line is that desktops and laptops are here to stay, and while the Web has become an integral part of the computing experience, it is merely a component of that experience, after the fashion of a Firefox add-on, and not the center of the computing universe. The industry "leaders" may have moved on, but the users haven't. What we've got now works very well, thank you.

Nope

Anyone who relies on the web for anything of any permanence is a complete and utter fool.

Hmmm.

Thinking about it, maybe that proves you right.