Feeds

England beat Germany - what are the odds?

It's a numbers game

  • alert
  • submit to reddit

Application security programs and practises

World Cup Stats Sunday afternoon England and Germany resume a rivalry that has spanned generations as they meet for the sixth time in major finals since 1970.

So what does Bettorlogic's look at England (Bettorlogic Rank 8) and Germany (ranked 5) tell us?

Despite never having lost in 90 minutes to the Germans in these past five meetings – W1-D4-L0 – England have still been sent packing in all three knock-out matches as in 1970 they lost in extra-time and then in 1990 and 1996 were famously beaten on penalties.

Both countries have good knock-out records in major tournaments with England having lost just 2/14 matches since 1970 in 90 minutes and Germany just 8/38. However, England have qualified in just six of 14 occasions with a W1-L5 record in penalty shoot-outs.

Also, nine of their 14 matches have been level at half-time.

Germany have qualified from 27 of their 38 knock-out matches at finals tournaments and have won all of their last 16 matches at World Cups since 1986, although just one of those matches was against a top-10 team.

Furthermore, the Germans have been level at half-time in half their 38 knock-out games.

There have been 43 World Cup knock-out matches between two top-10 teams since 1970 with the higher ranked team W12-D15-L16 and going W0-D11-L4 after extra-time, although they’ve an excellent record in penalties with nine wins out of 11.

Also, there have been 24 World Cup first knock-out matches since 1970 where one team won fewer than six points in their group, the other won at least six and both teams were separated by no more than 10 ranking positions. In these matches the team with the better group record – in this case Germany – went W12-D6-L6 and qualified in 15 of 24 matches. However, looking just at neutral matches and the record becomes slightly more even at W9-D6-L5 with 11 half-time draws.

Its recommendation: Germany to qualify. ®

The smart choice: opportunity from uncertainty

More from The Register

next story
Whoah! How many Google Play apps want to read your texts?
Google's app permissions far too lax – security firm survey
Chrome browser has been DRAINING PC batteries for YEARS
Google is only now fixing ancient, energy-sapping bug
Do YOU work at Microsoft? Um. Are you SURE about that?
Nokia and marketing types first to get the bullet, says report
Microsoft takes on Chromebook with low-cost Windows laptops
Redmond's chief salesman: We're taking 'hard' decisions
EU dons gloves, pokes Google's deals with Android mobe makers
El Reg cops a squint at investigatory letters
Big Blue Apple: IBM to sell iPads, iPhones to enterprises
iOS/2 gear loaded with apps for big biz ... uh oh BlackBerry
OpenWRT gets native IPv6 slurping in major refresh
Also faster init and a new packages system
prev story

Whitepapers

Reducing security risks from open source software
Follow a few strategies and your organization can gain the full benefits of open source and the cloud without compromising the security of your applications.
Consolidation: The Foundation for IT Business Transformation
In this whitepaper learn how effective consolidation of IT and business resources can enable multiple, meaningful business benefits.
Application security programs and practises
Follow a few strategies and your organization can gain the full benefits of open source and the cloud without compromising the security of your applications.
Boost IT visibility and business value
How building a great service catalog relieves pressure points and demonstrates the value of IT service management.
Consolidation: the foundation for IT and business transformation
In this whitepaper learn how effective consolidation of IT and business resources can enable multiple, meaningful business benefits.