England beat Germany - what are the odds?
It's a numbers game
World Cup Stats Sunday afternoon England and Germany resume a rivalry that has spanned generations as they meet for the sixth time in major finals since 1970.
So what does Bettorlogic's look at England (Bettorlogic Rank 8) and Germany (ranked 5) tell us?
Despite never having lost in 90 minutes to the Germans in these past five meetings – W1-D4-L0 – England have still been sent packing in all three knock-out matches as in 1970 they lost in extra-time and then in 1990 and 1996 were famously beaten on penalties.
Both countries have good knock-out records in major tournaments with England having lost just 2/14 matches since 1970 in 90 minutes and Germany just 8/38. However, England have qualified in just six of 14 occasions with a W1-L5 record in penalty shoot-outs.
Also, nine of their 14 matches have been level at half-time. Germany have qualified from 27 of their 38 knock-out matches at finals tournaments and have won all of their last 16 matches at World Cups since 1986, although just one of those matches was against a top-10 team.
Furthermore, the Germans have been level at half-time in half their 38 knock-out games.
There have been 43 World Cup knock-out matches between two top-10 teams since 1970 with the higher ranked team W12-D15-L16 and going W0-D11-L4 after extra-time, although they’ve an excellent record in penalties with nine wins out of 11.
Also, there have been 24 World Cup first knock-out matches since 1970 where one team won fewer than six points in their group, the other won at least six and both teams were separated by no more than 10 ranking positions. In these matches the team with the better group record – in this case Germany – went W12-D6-L6 and qualified in 15 of 24 matches. However, looking just at neutral matches and the record becomes slightly more even at W9-D6-L5 with 11 half-time draws.
Its recommendation: Germany to qualify. ®
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