Ovi Maps

You're ignoring the effect of Nokia's Ovi vector maps. Free maps and directions globally is quite an offering for the traveler. I think it's RIM and Apple that are going to suffer unless they do something similar.

Niche picking

Two of the current "big three" have one basic attribute that makes them appealing, it's sync. The ease of syncing data to a few basic applications is what makes user base expand. This leads me to believe Nokia is going to be losing ground unless it can find a point to get leverage from. The iPhone uses ActiveSync to connect to Exchange which makes it fairly easy for users to get their phone working with the company network. Blackberry has long had ties with business to provide a whole package, from phones to back end connections giving business a "one stop shop."

Where does that leave Nokia? They don't seem to have big corporate space ties and they don't have the iFaithful and individuals bringing in mass public appeal. What they have is a big brand name that gives people comfort. People who start with a high quality basic phone and come to know and trust the name. It is a name they will likely stick with when they decide to get their own smartphone. Unfortunately, Nokia has weaker high end phones so they need to improve their products as well as carve a niche if they don't want the high end to atrophy. That said, I'm not sure Ovi is it.

The rest of the pack have a whole lot of work to do just to get noticed. They need to be way ahead of the curve because being as good or even a little better isn't going to cut it against the heavy weights. I had hoped Palm would have done better but they seem too focused on syncing with iTunes and going bare knuckled against Apple. In the long run, phones will be a commodity and if you are just making phones... you're just making phones. If you're thinking you've seen this before, you did, but they were called PCs.