Finger crossing won't lure iPhone coders to Windows Mobile
Microsoft's miscalculation compounded
Apple will sell more than 82 million iPhones in 2012, teaming up with RIM and Palm in an industry that will ship 500 million plus smartphones that year and leave Microsoft out in the cold.
The trio will forge a "new world order" as smart phones become the next wave in computing according to a research report from RBC Capital Markets. RBC's report and latest numbers revised the companies' project shipments upwards.
Duly alerted, investors drove up the stock prices of each of the three companies, delighting execs in Cupertino, Waterloo, and Sunnyvale.
We can only imagine that the mood was not as upbeat in Redmond, where Microsoft continues its long, slow sag into smartphone irrelevance.
And Microsoft has brought their mobile troubles upon themselves through poor analysis and even poorer planning.
Steve Ballmer famously derided the iPhone when it was first released, telling USA Today: "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share."
He was wrong.
In an equally famous CNBC-TV interview that has garnered over 2.3 million views on YouTube, Ballmer laughingly dismissed the iPhone.
Today, Windows Mobile continues to lose market share, with no real relief expected until Windows 7 Mobile appears next spring. But in that same CNBC-TV video, Balmer says about Windows Mobile: "I like our strategy, I like it a lot."
Three strikes, Steve.
Today, Microsoft has a two-pronged mobile strategy - and both involve crossing one's fingers. First, they have Windows Mobile 6.5 and the Windows Mobile Marketplace set for a fall release. However, 6.5 won't be a fully touch-based interface, which has become the de facto smartphone standard in the consumer market, and which is rapidly becoming accepted by business users.
And there's no way on God's green earth that the Marketplace will even approach the success of Apple's App Store, which surpassed 1.5 billion downloads last month, driven in large part because the iPhone is an enjoyable consumer experience. Say what you will in favor of Windows Mobile, but "fun" will not likely be part of your description.
Microsoft's second finger-crossing strategy is its attempt to lure iPhone developers into the Windows Mobile camp. Unfortunately, developing for the iPhone and developing for Windows Mobile 6.5 are two quite different animals.
Prolific competition, diverse platforms
Don't expect any mass migration of iPhone developers to Windows Mobile - at least not unless Apple continues to make their App Store experiences painful for developers, or unless Windows Mobile 7 turns out to be a dream to code for. But there are indications that Apple is learning to play nice with developers, and the jury is still out on Windows Mobile 7's environment.
Also, Microsoft has competition in its wooing of iPhone developers. Palm, for example, began accepting candidates on Tuesday for the beta version its webOS Catalog - the company's analogy to the App Store - that it plans to launch later this year.
Devotees of Google's Android are also attempting to attract disaffected iPhone coders, and with some success. Some developers, however, who left the Apple fold have returned, citing disappointment with the platform.
Even Sony is tryling to entice iPhone developers to create apps for its PSPgo, scheduled for release this fall.
I Don't have an IPhone or use MS products
Doubt that I ever will.
I use Ubuntu on my apparently redundant thing called a Computer, and a Cell Phone that sits it my car and gets used only in emergency situations.
I expect I am not conditioned to this buying the latest shiny gadget or MSs latest expensive OS.
Must go now for my afternoon nap.
Peace and Joy to you all.
@ Oooohhh Kaaayyyy by jsk
The link below might be out of date and only a projection but it gives a sort of idea about the relative markets in different geographical areas.
Basically they reckon that 2008 the iphone had 20% of a north American Smartphone market of 40M units but only 8% of the EMEA (Europe, Middle east and Africa) smartphone market of 65M units. Similar figures for the rest of the world. projections for 2009 show a apple gaining a larger percentage of a larger market. Still only projections I know but sales figures are hard to come by. They suggest that the US is a large but saturated and depressed market. The rest of world is a larger market and it is growing and more open.
Don't get angry. You asked where the estimated sales might come from. We where just trying to give you a clue.
No nerves touched here really, you chaps across the pond must be really sensitive. You are reading waaaaay too much into the quote you used (nice "Fox 'News'" style editing there). Fanboi? So, because I choose to buy products from a vendor that you or windywoo or any other vacuous troll disapprove of and call me and every other consumer that chooses Apple names, I cannot respond? I can't recall as many posts slagging off other platforms as readily as most slag off the iPhone, with most of it just hearsay or at best personal conjecture (5 minutes in an Apple store just doesn't count). At what point in either post do I say that all other platforms are crap and that people who buy, say a WinMo BJ2, are arrogant and geeky zealots that only use the device to be 'alternative', and are therefore pretentious? I don't. Because I *don't* think that. I believe it is your right as a consumer to choose and to use what ever device you want. In fact the closest I got is perhaps pointing out how well the iPhone is doing in the market place. Do *I* think my choice is better? Yes. Do I think I'm a better person than you or anyone else because of this choice? No. See, that's where people like you get it wrong. As stated, I am personally a little bit sick of constantly (and it is constant - look at *any* Reg article referencing Apple or the iPhone if you wish) seeing posts by vapid narcissists who think that their opinion is lore. Hey, nothing wrong with not liking Apple or it products. That's an individuals right as a consumer, although hating a business is a little OTT - this isn't football (both sorts will do here). I do have a problem with it when I am told, repeatedly, that *I'm* an idiot for buying "over-priced junk" from Apple and that I only bought the products because I think it makes me look cool and get callen fanboi when I say that *I* like it! STFU! I've been asked about the iPhone by friends and relatives, and I have told them that *I* think it's the best phone that *I* have ever owned, because *I* do - it's the first one that I've had and not found myself counting down the contract. Some people only have Nokia. Are they fanboi's? Are they exhibiting brand loyalty? Or, here's a scary thought, they just like them. Why is it OK for people like windywoo to have a problem with that, but not OK for someone to pull them up on it? Fanboi? Am I a Dell fanboi because I have a Dell laptop and netbook? Am I a Windows fanboi because I like what Microsoft have done with Windows 7? No, I must be an Ubuntu fanboi, because I like how it runs on my netbook. I am an Office fanboi because I think the ribbon interface is a truely excellent example of UI design. I'm also an oxygen fanboi, because I like breathing. So yes, I suppose I am a fanboi, certainly of technology and computing, and obviously breathing. Perhaps I shouldn't have fed this particular troll, and I should let windywoo's opinions wash over me, but then again, why should a coward like that get away with it? Levente Szileszky and Karim Bourouba have both posted some truley shocking examples of fanboism and trolling here - I'm not biting, I'm certainly not 'upset' by it. I think that they are wrong. Are you going to have a go at Levente? He seems to be *really* upset. Or is your particular prejudice strictly for Apple users? As I said, everyone is entitled to an opinion, even you.