3D TV will won't go primetime in 2011
Analyst vs analyst
One analyst’s recent claim that sales of 3D TVs will truly take off during 2011 is far-fetched, a rival market watcher has claimed.
Claudio Aspesi, an researcher at US investment firm Sanford Bernstein, this week forecast: "The beginnings of broad 3D TV adoption in Europe could take place as early as 2011," according to a report by The Independent newspaper.
But Paul Gray, Director of European TV research at market research company DisplaySearch, today laughed off the suggestion that 3D TV will be a mass-market product within two years.
“If you think that we’ll go to 3D in Europe at or before the same time we go to HD, you’re mistaken,” he told Register Hardware.
Telly manufacturers Mitsubishi and LG have already produced 3D-capable sets, while broadcasters, such as Sky, are currently investing time and money in 3D TV content R&D. So what’s holding back the technology's roll-out?
Market watcher Screen Digest has previously said that the percentage of TVs sold worldwide with 3D capability will only exceed ten per cent by 2011 if a “unifying standard” emerges to ensure that 3D works across all display technologies.
Gray agrees. He said that a whole gamut of 3D TV and related standards have yet to be defined. These range from how 3D content will be encoded to how it will be distributed.
Content availability is another limiting factor, Gray said. Sky has already admitted that a lack of suitable content is the main factor preventing it from launching a commercial 3D TV offering.
Gaming will be the “killer content” for 3D, Gray believes, because gamers will be the ones willing to pay the extra for a 3D TV. Gamers will also demand that console manufacturers step up to the plate with the firmware and hardware updates necessary to make, say, a 3D Xbox 360 gaming experience an off-the-shelf reality.
If this happens then Gray also sees no reason why consoles couldn’t be used as a way of getting 3D films into homes.
The final piece of the puzzle is picture quality, Gray said, and this requires content producers and TV manufacturers to work together to ensure that 3D pictures are of the same quality as HD movies and broadcasts. ®
COMMENTS
Nah...
...it was a flop when they tried it with radio, it will flop again!
@MeRp
You have misunderstood. Paul is referring to stereoscopic gaming through the use of shuttered goggles, and a video card and game that support them.
Here we go again
Been hearing this for years, they say gaming will be the killer app, but only if they get the programmers to stop using 2d tricks in their rendering, Stereoscopic gaming has got a lot harder since the introduction of pixel shaders!
@Paul Shirley
3D gaming sank w/o a trace? Was that today? Why isn't there a reg article about this... no more FPS games being produced!
The wicked headaches and queasiness have drastically reduced for most people as effects and frame rates improved. Turning up the refresh rate on the monitor doesn't do that much when you still only have 15 fps from the software...
The final piece of the puzzle is picture quality
Based on Sky's "Quality Programmes" I don't see it as a major issue.
Crap in HD is still crap, applies also to 3D & 3DHD
As for games if the TV does not cover the full visual field + the torso/head rotation angles, I don't see the interest as the brain is already doing the job, and if it were the motion on the screen would not match the inner ear sensors which may end up in falls whilst sitting.
Expect some law suits.
