Feeds

Junk science and booze tax - a study in spin

Where's the beer?

Security for virtualized datacentres

The defective model

The contemporary models he examined estimated the price elasticity of alcohol - the rise or fall in demand when the price changed. These models overlooked a number of variables, Dee found, which overshadowed conventional assumptions about elasticity. Dee also found that differences in alcohol consumption and pricing from state to state had also been overlooked. Once these were included, Dee concluded that "beer taxes have relatively small and statistically insignificant effects on teen drinking".

For the Sheffield study, Dee's work remains an obstacle they can't ignore. After devoting considerable space citing different alcohol elasticities, the researchers grudgingly concedes that there may be what they call a "potential confounding variable" at work here.

"Having taken this potential confounding variable into account, the effect of taxes on drinking disappeared," they admit, before going on to dismiss Dee's work.

Yet they cite evidence showing that he was essentially correct. "Reviews of demand models from 1989 and 1990 in the UK found that the demand for beer, wine, and spirits was generally price-inelastic", they write, undermining the entire point of the excercise. So the evidence stubbornly refuses to provide strong support for the policy direction the academics have been asked to justify.

More surprises follow in the second part of the study - the "model" - where we discover, after all, that "price increases are not matched by consumption reductions and overall spending on alcohol is estimated to increase".

In other words, consumption patterns remain the same, and drinkers absorb the cost. And what about the minimum pricing recommendation, which so captivated our newspapers last week?

"There is little empirical research investigating minimum pricing."

Oh.

Security for virtualized datacentres

More from The Register

next story
Phones 4u slips into administration after EE cuts ties with Brit mobe retailer
More than 5,500 jobs could be axed if rescue mission fails
JINGS! Microsoft Bing called Scots indyref RIGHT!
Redmond sporran metrics get one in the ten ring
Driving with an Apple Watch could land you with a £100 FINE
Bad news for tech-addicted fanbois behind the wheel
Phones 4u website DIES as wounded mobe retailer struggles to stay above water
Founder blames 'ruthless network partners' for implosion
Sony says year's losses will be FOUR TIMES DEEPER than thought
Losses of more than $2 BILLION loom over troubled Japanese corp
Radio hams can encrypt, in emergencies, says Ofcom
Consultation promises new spectrum and hints at relaxed licence conditions
Why Oracle CEO Larry Ellison had to go ... Except he hasn't
Silicon Valley's veteran seadog in piratical Putin impression
Big Content Australia just blew a big hole in its credibility
AHEDA's research on average content prices did not expose methodology, so appears less than rigourous
prev story

Whitepapers

Secure remote control for conventional and virtual desktops
Balancing user privacy and privileged access, in accordance with compliance frameworks and legislation. Evaluating any potential remote control choice.
WIN a very cool portable ZX Spectrum
Win a one-off portable Spectrum built by legendary hardware hacker Ben Heck
Storage capacity and performance optimization at Mizuno USA
Mizuno USA turn to Tegile storage technology to solve both their SAN and backup issues.
High Performance for All
While HPC is not new, it has traditionally been seen as a specialist area – is it now geared up to meet more mainstream requirements?
The next step in data security
With recent increased privacy concerns and computers becoming more powerful, the chance of hackers being able to crack smaller-sized RSA keys increases.