Feeds

Global meltdown endangers terabytes

Could storage sales sag?

SANS - Survey on application security programs

We consumers are cracking. We don't trust the banks. The banks aren't lending to businesses. The businesses are firing workers and buying less. So we consumers are spending less. It's a mess. The economy is in an almost certain recession and storage sales could head south.

Forecasts of terabytes shipped have consistently shown growth, whether it's for enterprise storage, small/medium business (SMB) storage or storage in homes. None of the storage sales growth forecasters have revised their charts to take account of the recession that is upon us. So let's see what will go through their pretty shell-shocked heads.

US industrial production, according to the FT, showed its largest monthly decline since 1974. There was a 1.2 percent year-on-year fall in retail sales, making three monthly falls in a row. Purchases of automobiles came to an emergency stop. Clothing and furniture sales were weak.

US consumers with ravaged 401K retirement plans and vanishingly small savings are becoming thrifty. They'll save before spending cash on new curtains, a new car, a new PC. The vista looks bleak.

Web 2.0 start-ups are in an austerity phase, laying off workers and treating every dollar as if it was their last after Sequoia Capital's graveyard shift warning.

Small businesses are in trouble. Credit has dried up, sales are falling, and that new server computer system is going to have to wait. The small businesses don't buy so much from their suppliers who don't...you can see the way things are going.

Put it like this: The US and European economies are facing the worst recession for 25 years and it might be even bleaker than that. When the IDCs of our storage world hit the phones and canvas their contacts for storage sales outlooks, they could find their hitherto ever upward charts suddenly turning south.

In a recession the growth in customer data for businesses could slow and halt. The ability of business to buy new storage kit will be less. The appetite of financially-challenged public sector bodies for storage could lapse. Web 2.0 companies won't grow so much and that supposed drive array gold-mine turn into fools' gold.

Taking all this into account, it is beginning to be conceivable that storage sales could sink. We could see a sequential sag in terabytes shipped in Q4 of this year with another one in Q1 next year.

Michael Dell thinks that a recession could favour Dell because there will be a flight to value, meaning lower prices as well as sheer value for money. Customers could simply move from a tier one storage supplier or product to a tier two, from Symmetrix to Clariion, or from EMC to Compellent or Pillar, and so on down the stack of products and suppliers.

Weaker suppliers could be left cruelly exposed. It all depends upon the size of the curve ball that the economy is throwing at the storage industry. If it's big enough, then shipped terabytes could turn south and some suppliers could crack as well as consumers. ®

High performance access to file storage

More from The Register

next story
Dropbox defends fantastically badly timed Condoleezza Rice appointment
'Nothing is going to change with Dr. Rice's appointment,' file sharer promises
Audio fans, prepare yourself for the Second Coming ... of Blu-ray
High Fidelity Pure Audio – is this what your ears have been waiting for?
Did a date calculation bug just cost hard-up Co-op Bank £110m?
And just when Brit banking org needs £400m to stay afloat
Sorry London, Europe's top tech city is Munich
New 'Atlas of ICT Activity' finds innovation isn't happening at Silicon Roundabout
MtGox chief Karpelès refuses to come to US for g-men's grilling
Bitcoin baron says he needs another lawyer for FinCEN chat
Zucker punched: Google gobbles Facebook-wooed Titan Aerospace
Up, up and away in my beautiful balloon flying broadband-bot
Apple DOMINATES the Valley, rakes in more profit than Google, HP, Intel, Cisco COMBINED
Cook & Co. also pay more taxes than those four worthies PLUS eBay and Oracle
prev story

Whitepapers

Designing a defence for mobile apps
In this whitepaper learn the various considerations for defending mobile applications; from the mobile application architecture itself to the myriad testing technologies needed to properly assess mobile applications risk.
3 Big data security analytics techniques
Applying these Big Data security analytics techniques can help you make your business safer by detecting attacks early, before significant damage is done.
Five 3D headsets to be won!
We were so impressed by the Durovis Dive headset we’ve asked the company to give some away to Reg readers.
The benefits of software based PBX
Why you should break free from your proprietary PBX and how to leverage your existing server hardware.
Securing web applications made simple and scalable
In this whitepaper learn how automated security testing can provide a simple and scalable way to protect your web applications.