Blu-ray 'to bloom', now HD DVD's dead
Will you be one of the 18.8m people buying into BD this year?
Expect demand for Blu-ray Disc technology to explode this year, with 29.4m homes around the globe owning a BD player by the end of the year, it has been claimed.
The forecast comes from market watcher Strategy Analytics (SA), which admits that the vast majority of those machines will be PS3 games consoles. Some 13m BD-compatible consoles will be purchased worldwide this year, compared to 4m standalone players and 2m computers with BD drives.
In 2012, the company predicted, some 57.4m BD devices will be sold, taking the format's installed base to 132m homes. By then, the PS3 will have lost out to standalone devices, almost certainly a result of falling player prices.
That said, SA also said 256m homes will have at least one HD TV in 2012, so there'll still be plenty of folk out there who won't be getting their HD content from optical discs.
Maybe by that time we'll all have sufficient broadband capacity for the realisation of Apple CEO Steve Jobs' vision of World+Dog downloading HD movies from iTunes to have come about.
"And there is the flaw in your argument. Fact is the *vast* majority of the population (in the UK at least), *do not* have TVs that size. Even 32" is big for most people"
Interestingly, you are indeed wrong. The uptake on 'large' flat screens is unprecedented. CRTs are being dumped at local waste tips faster than they can actually recycle the darn things, and this is all by families. Now, where you argument could fit is with the kids who have a blu-ray player in their bedroom.
But that is besides the point. The vast uptake of PS3 (for example) purchases demographically is by males between the 20-35 according to numerous sources (El Reg being one of them) who have means to buy said machine and screen.
I do, however agree that if you have a screen less that (say) 32" it is somewhat pointless to upgrade to a HiDef player.
"And there is the flaw in your argument. Fact is the *vast* majority of the population (in the UK at least), *do not* have TVs that size. Even 32" is big for most people."
"Considering Blu-Ray on say a 21" CRT vs a DVD... I can assure you it's not night and day."
I repeat "no-one can sell BluRay without mentioning the caveat of screen size."
To TimM ref @Alex Yes size matters !
'And there is the flaw in your argument. Fact is the *vast* majority of the population (in the UK at least), *do not* have TVs that size. Even 32" is big for most people....'
And the flaw with YOUR argument...? Yes in the past the average telly was 20, 24, 28 inch . Why was that ???
Simply Because CRT were extremely expensive large and heavy, impossibly so for moving around the house, never minding finding one that was say 42 and remotely cheap enough for the average consumer. Now with LCD and Plasma you can get a 47'(!!) for under a 1000 ukp and prices are continually dropping.
The average telly size now sold has shot up in the past decade from 21' to between 32'- 37' (Do a quick google for proof) and there is no doubt with prices dropping that will increase to 42' soon. And if that is the AVERAGE sold then you can bet there is a large perecentage of the population that are buying 42', 48' now....Sharp have also been quoted as saying average size will be 60' by 2015...
Somebody is buying all that stock in Comet/dixons etc. otherwise they wouldn't be selling em' !!
And yes I have checked my friends and they are all buying slowly Large LCD's...The last one a 42' JVC...mmm very nice
Might I suggest you get with the times....
HD-DVD/Blu-Ray battle? The winner? Probably Blu-Ray. BUT there is another option on the horizon - Holographic Media.
These discs have a capacity of 300GB!
Capacities of over a TeraByte (1024 GB) are promised within the next 2-3 years. The American TV Industry has already begun to adopt these drives for portable HDTV cameras, because no other media has the capacity.
Someone mentioned having the complete Star Wars "hexology" on a single disc. With holographic media it is possible - not only in HD, but 1080p HD. Even developers of Blu-Ray predict a MAXIMUM of 8 layers (at 25GB/layer) which makes Blu-Ray's total potential of 200GB - so Star Wars on a single Blu-Ray disc is just not going to happen. The potential for this form of media is huge. Not just having the all films from a series, but having "the making of", deleted scenes AND space for the obligitory computer game. Seeing as a Blu-Ray game has already had to be cut down to fit on a single disc, holographic media is the next logical step.
True, solid state media has potential, but it is a long way off.
"You CAN tell, yes, you CAN. Watching on a 32inch or a 40inch, it is like night and day"
And there is the flaw in your argument. Fact is the *vast* majority of the population (in the UK at least), *do not* have TVs that size. Even 32" is big for most people.
Forget yourself, your nerdy or young affluent friends, the population of El-Reg readers, Blu-Ray.com nutheads, and pretty much the entire base of PS3 owners who are demographically males between 12 and 30-something with money to spend.
These people do not make up the majority of TV and DVD player owners in the UK.
The vast majority have a small CRT they have tucked in the corner. Forget what you see on sale in Dixons, Currys, Comet, etc.
Think about it. What type of TV do your parents and grandparents have, and their friends, and their friends friends, etc?
The actual potentially interested demographic for HD in the UK is maybe some 20% of the population. The rest couldn't give a rats if it's night and day on a 32" or bigger telly!. DVD on the other hand is so saturated that it reaches the majority of TV owners. What's going to make them buy into HD, let alone Blu-Ray? Jumping up and down saying it's night and day isn't going to do it. That they bought DVD at all was more to do with convenience than quality, plus the fact that VHS really had it's day. Considering Blu-Ray on say a 21" CRT vs a DVD... I can assure you it's not night and day.