JMK wouldn't recognize this bunch of financial soothsayers

The main risk to economic stability is not the credit squeeze - it is a cheap labour service industry economy financed by unsustainable credit levels.

Paris icon because she knows more about ups and downs (financial or otherwise) than this bunch of charlatans.

Back in June 1999 we had a chat with a City analyst, he said that 2k was a pivot point and quite accurately predicted just how deep the brown stuff was going to be through until 2003. At the time one of our senior managers wrote it all of as "scaremongering us into a recession". He didn't make it into 2002.

Watch out for those sneaky BOFHs and BITCHs (Bizz IT Cash Holders, ie IT bosses) carefully making themselves "essential parts of the corporate system" (ie, unfireable) right about now.....

Flak jacket please, I'm meeting the beancounters later!

a 30% fall in house prices? you are having a laugh. There is almost certainly going to be a period of low growth, maybe even modest negative growth for a while, but definitely nothing more than a couple of percent.

This is because of high demand with insufficient supply, driven by the investment and property development markets. Typical that making money takes precedence over the ability of ordinary people to buy a decent place to live. Poor transport links, for which there is no real solution in sight, will also continue to drive people to look for property in specific areas close to centres of job availablility, rather than moving away to more affordable areas.

Just my cynical view of the UK - which has developed over the 13 years I've lived here. Same seems to be happening back in NZ, because overseas property buyers inspired by Peter Jacksons movies have blown the housing market out of all proportion.

No mention there, John, about the Virtual Black Economy .....and ITs NEUKlearer HyperRadioProActivity ....AI Colossal Astuteness.

A Dark Horse Wild Card Play Gambit, in All Probability, Probably.

...those that hold the interest rate strings, they've got alot to answer for increasing interest rates to try and curtail the price of fuel, which was in turn the core reason for rising inflation. Fuel rising in price due in a good part to all the conflicts around the World.

It's too late now though, the 'bust' part of the cycle is upon us, those holding the interest rate strings went way too far.

"Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics believes house prices will fall by about 30 per cent in the next two years with no major impact on the UK economy"

Rather ironic comments coming from a man who, as a member of the supposedly-independent Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, is partly responsible for the economy being in the state it is now.

This sort of situation has been predicted, and discussed, in other forums for nigh-on five years now - what we're seeing is a long overdue correction (all IMO, of course). If the value of my house falls by 30% then so be it - it'll be a far more realistic indication of its worth than what some estate agent tells me.

Prudence and her chickens are finally coming home to roost - some people will suffer, others won't. So it goes.

That second sentence is surely a reject from "Blinded by the Light"

amanfromMars - you are Bruce Springsteen and I claim my five pounds

Watching the reports over the last few years - they seemed to be on the optimistic side of what actually happened.

They keep saying about demand for houses maintaining prices – but seems to be overlooked is confidence in market – you might push yourself to buy beyond your means if you are confident the worse that can happen when you can't cope anymore is you have to sell and make a profit – but that confidence has about vanished.

And if you have brought to let – are you going to sit and wait for a drop in value when you can sell now and have a few £k in the bank?

Though why do I care - money in bank and no debts

There's nothing for it - the government needs to order a full-scale onslaught of "Location, Location, Location" and "A Place in the Sun" on TV in order to convince people the housing market is still booming!

Clearly you haven't watched much TV lately...expecially any of the Channel 4 digital stuff...

The Middle East and Asia region is booming and that will carry us through. As for House prices, great let them fall to price of a matchbox and I can then live in one again (i.e. a house)

Oh, do I wish that happened over here in Mexico City. Then I might actually *own* an apartment instead of renting one.

Wait. In fact, it seems to be happening, because some wise-crack decided to build new tower block condo's in the middle of bad neighbourhoods. Oops.

Still, anything decent-sized and in good locations (near subway and decent public transportation) is over $90k, I still can't pay that.

But why, oh why are housing prices going down something bad? Lower prices means people who can't afford a house might afford one now, isn't it? Sheesh...

Why will the Middle East and Asia region is booming carry us through?

China's growth has kept our inflation low by providing cheap goods - but as China's economy grows so does the cost of Chinese goods (probably the real reason for Gordon's miracles)

India's economy - those who can afford to feed ours are actually those who are being feed with our outsourcing programs

And for all the needs of these booming economies - they can get stuff cheaper closer to home

"Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics believes house prices will fall by about 30 per cent in the next two years with no major impact on the UK economy"

I think we'll find some house prices falling quite significantly, others keeping their value, or only dropping alittle. For instance - in Reading (Major commuter town for London) you can get a Victorian 2up, 2down, plus kitchen, bathroom, converted cellar, modest garden in a conservation area slap bang in the centre of town for about £180k give or take (which is probably too much, anyway, IMO). Compare this to a two bed ponce flat (sorry, executive apartment) with two boxlike "double" bedrooms, one or both with en suite, a separate bathroom and kitchen/diner/living room with a balcony that you might get a window box on at about £200-250k, in pretty much the same area as the previously mentioned house.

The developers of said ponce flats, seem to already have trouble getting them shifted, offering 'no stamp duty' or 'only £500 per month' offers whereas the houses in the conservation area are all selling pretty quickly at, or near, the asking price. Now which ones do you think are about to collapse in price by 30%?

To Joe & Jane Sixpack, a good econommy is one where they can buy reasonable house, have a reassonable car and feed themselves and kids and have a reasonable vacation now and then and still put a bit of money away for a rainy day.

The economists are just focused on useless measures such as GDP which are interested in numbers and not true quality of life indicators.

For economists, rising house prices are a good thing because this increases the amount of purchasing. This helps to jack up GDP numbers.

"Virtual Black Economy .....and ITs NEUKlearer HyperRadioProActivity ....AI Colossal Astuteness"

Right, I know amanfromMars is going to ignore this post as he usually completely fails to reply to my attempts at interpreting what he says; however I'm the kind of person that picks at a scab so here goes - amanfromMars, are you trying to imply that there is a black market in information via IT and that HAARP will cause something big and bad to happen which has been planned by a bunch of massive supercomputers which have concocted a plan which will make all our petty financial problems completely irrelevant?

If so, does this mean we can all stop work for a living and play on video games all day?

I hadn't seen any posts from amanfromMars recently, and had begun to think he'd crashed over the holiday period. ;-)