Feeds

Paid video has look and feel of dead duck

You can't beat free, says Forrester

Build a business case: developing custom apps

Forrester Research has predicted that video download services such as iTunes will peak this year, unless consumers change their habits.

Forrester analyst James McQuivey calls them a "temporary flash" but a "dead end". He forecasts a sharp ramp in revenue this year, from $98m to $279m, powered by what he calls "media addicts". But these won't be enough to sustain a mass market, he suggests, and free services will eventually win out.

You can't trust early adopters, says McQuivey:

"An analysis of these consumers showed they are a niche of media junkies willing to spend heavily on such content," he writes, "they do not represent the vanguard of a rush by mainstream consumers. Without mainstream viewers joining the party, the video download market will not grow fast enough to support the ambitions of all the companies involved."

The company reckons only nine per cent of adult in the US have dabbled with online video purchases, spending an average of $14.

There are some other interesting conclusions in McQuivey's research. Ad-supported TV will eclipse ad-skipping PVRs, he predicts, because ad-supported TV costs less. (Skip the adverts, and you either get cheaper TV - or someone has to pay).

Let's hope Forrester stands by its research rather more firmly than last year's digital music prediction. The company discovered that iTunes store sales, while growing, were failing to maintain the levels of earlier years - and even revealed a year-on-year seasonal collapse.

"There's no indication of enormous growth coming," Josh Bernoff told us last December. "When you look at this alongside the SoundScan numbers, you may ask 'Where's the part were we're supposed to get excited?'"

After fielding frantic calls from hedge funds, Bernoff later claimed that the most accurate reports of his research had been inaccurate, while the most inaccurate had accurately conveyed what he didn't mean to say. ®

A new approach to endpoint data protection

More from The Register

next story
Amazon says Hachette should lower ebook prices, pay authors more
Oh yeah ... and a 30% cut for Amazon to seal the deal
Philip K Dick 'Nazi alternate reality' story to be made into TV series
Amazon Studios, Ridley Scott firm to produce The Man in the High Castle
Nintend-OH NO! Sorry, Mario – your profits are in another castle
Red-hatted mascot, red-colored logo, red-stained finance books
Sonos AXES support for Apple's iOS4 and 5
Want to use your iThing? You can't - it's too old
Joe Average isn't worth $10 a year to Mark Zuckerberg
The Social Network deflates the PC resurgence with mobile-only usage prediction
Chips are down at Broadcom: Thousands of workers laid off
Cellphone baseband device biz shuttered
Feel free to BONK on the TUBE, says Transport for London
Plus: Almost NOBODY uses pay-by-bonk on buses - Visa
Twitch rich as Google flicks $1bn hitch switch, claims snitch
Gameplay streaming biz and search king refuse to deny fresh gobble rumors
Stick a 4K in them: Super high-res TVs are DONE
4,000 pixels is niche now... Don't say we didn't warn you
prev story

Whitepapers

7 Elements of Radically Simple OS Migration
Avoid the typical headaches of OS migration during your next project by learning about 7 elements of radically simple OS migration.
Implementing global e-invoicing with guaranteed legal certainty
Explaining the role local tax compliance plays in successful supply chain management and e-business and how leading global brands are addressing this.
Consolidation: The Foundation for IT Business Transformation
In this whitepaper learn how effective consolidation of IT and business resources can enable multiple, meaningful business benefits.
Solving today's distributed Big Data backup challenges
Enable IT efficiency and allow a firm to access and reuse corporate information for competitive advantage, ultimately changing business outcomes.
A new approach to endpoint data protection
What is the best way to ensure comprehensive visibility, management, and control of information on both company-owned and employee-owned devices?