Feeds

Paid video has look and feel of dead duck

You can't beat free, says Forrester

Choosing a cloud hosting partner with confidence

Forrester Research has predicted that video download services such as iTunes will peak this year, unless consumers change their habits.

Forrester analyst James McQuivey calls them a "temporary flash" but a "dead end". He forecasts a sharp ramp in revenue this year, from $98m to $279m, powered by what he calls "media addicts". But these won't be enough to sustain a mass market, he suggests, and free services will eventually win out.

You can't trust early adopters, says McQuivey:

"An analysis of these consumers showed they are a niche of media junkies willing to spend heavily on such content," he writes, "they do not represent the vanguard of a rush by mainstream consumers. Without mainstream viewers joining the party, the video download market will not grow fast enough to support the ambitions of all the companies involved."

The company reckons only nine per cent of adult in the US have dabbled with online video purchases, spending an average of $14.

There are some other interesting conclusions in McQuivey's research. Ad-supported TV will eclipse ad-skipping PVRs, he predicts, because ad-supported TV costs less. (Skip the adverts, and you either get cheaper TV - or someone has to pay).

Let's hope Forrester stands by its research rather more firmly than last year's digital music prediction. The company discovered that iTunes store sales, while growing, were failing to maintain the levels of earlier years - and even revealed a year-on-year seasonal collapse.

"There's no indication of enormous growth coming," Josh Bernoff told us last December. "When you look at this alongside the SoundScan numbers, you may ask 'Where's the part were we're supposed to get excited?'"

After fielding frantic calls from hedge funds, Bernoff later claimed that the most accurate reports of his research had been inaccurate, while the most inaccurate had accurately conveyed what he didn't mean to say. ®

Choosing a cloud hosting partner with confidence

More from The Register

next story
Scrapping the Human Rights Act: What about privacy and freedom of expression?
Justice minister's attack to destroy ability to challenge state
WHY did Sunday Mirror stoop to slurping selfies for smut sting?
Tabloid splashes, MP resigns - but there's a BIG copyright issue here
Google hits back at 'Dear Rupert' over search dominance claims
Choc Factory sniffs: 'We're not pirate-lovers - also, you publish The Sun'
EU to accuse Ireland of giving Apple an overly peachy tax deal – report
Probe expected to say single-digit rate was unlawful
Inequality increasing? BOLLOCKS! You heard me: 'Screw the 1%'
There's morality and then there's economics ...
While you queued for an iPhone 6, Apple's Cook sold shares worth $35m
Right before the stock took a 3.8% dive amid bent and broken mobe drama
4chan outraged by Emma Watson nudie photo leak SCAM
In the immortal words of Shaggy, it wasn't me us ... amirite?
prev story

Whitepapers

A strategic approach to identity relationship management
ForgeRock commissioned Forrester to evaluate companies’ IAM practices and requirements when it comes to customer-facing scenarios versus employee-facing ones.
Storage capacity and performance optimization at Mizuno USA
Mizuno USA turn to Tegile storage technology to solve both their SAN and backup issues.
High Performance for All
While HPC is not new, it has traditionally been seen as a specialist area – is it now geared up to meet more mainstream requirements?
Beginner's guide to SSL certificates
De-mystify the technology involved and give you the information you need to make the best decision when considering your online security options.
Security for virtualized datacentres
Legacy security solutions are inefficient due to the architectural differences between physical and virtual environments.