Feeds

Analysts look both ways at Vista

Glazed over Windows

High performance access to file storage

Twenty-one years after Windows ignited the PC revolution, at least according to Microsoft, analysts are at odds over just how well Redmond's newest operating system will go down.

The UK's very own Ovum has delivered a cheery assessment apparently predicting Windows Vista will out-sell Windows XP in its first year.

Software practice head David Mitchell expects 15 per cent of PC users will adopt Windows Vista during the operating system's first year, compared to between 12 and 14 per cent for Windows XP, which launched in October 2001.

"That would make it the fastest moving operating system ever," according to Mitchell.

Across the pond, Gartner is somewhat cooler. The mega analyst believes less than 10 per cent of PCs will run Windows Vista in the first 12 months.

It's the latest sober Gartner prediction on Windows Vista's prospects, following the prediction Windows Vista would not "significantly" affect PC sales next year.

The great unknown in all this is the affect Microsoft's staggered shipping date will have on sales. Typically, holiday sales prove a boon to Microsoft and PC makers.

Both, though, will miss the pull-through effect of the holidays on sales, as Windows Vista will not become broadly available to consumers and businesses until 30 January, 2007, after consumer purses have been emptied and spending budgets set.

Microsoft's official launch this week will see Windows Vista only going to business users on volume accounts.

Microsoft is clearly hoping the channel can convince users to buy brand new PCs loaded with Windows XP in the next few weeks and they will upgrade next year. Unfortunately for Microsoft and OEMs though, upgrades are something the majority of consumers try to avoid, and most copies of Windows are sold with PCs.

Adding confusion to the mix, is the fact users must choose between PCs that are powerful enough to run Windows Vista Home Premium, Enterprise, and Ultimate and those that can run the puny Basic editions - lacking the Aero interface or Media Player. Microsoft has devised two logos to differentiate between these machines, along with a set of videos to explain the differences for confused retailers and channel suppliers.

All of this, of course, takes place on the anniversary of Windows 1.0. Nerds and history buffs should click here to geek out on details. ®

High performance access to file storage

More from The Register

next story
Android engineer: We DIDN'T copy Apple OR follow Samsung's orders
Veep testifies for Samsung during Apple patent trial
Windows 8.1, which you probably haven't upgraded to yet, ALREADY OBSOLETE
Pre-Update versions of new Windows version will no longer support patches
Microsoft lobs pre-release Windows Phone 8.1 at devs who dare
App makers can load it before anyone else, but if they do they're stuck with it
This time it's 'Personal': new Office 365 sub covers just two devices
Redmond also brings Office into Google's back yard
Half of Twitter's 'active users' are SILENT STALKERS
Nearly 50% have NEVER tweeted a word
Windows XP still has 27 per cent market share on its deathbed
Windows 7 making some gains on XP Death Day
Internet-of-stuff startup dumps NoSQL for ... SQL?
NoSQL taste great at first but lacks proper nutrients, says startup cloud whiz
US taxman blows Win XP deadline, must now spend millions on custom support
Gov't IT likened to 'a Model T with a lot of things on top of it'
Batten down the hatches, Ubuntu 14.04 LTS due in TWO DAYS
Admins dab straining server brows in advance of Trusty Tahr's long-term support landing
prev story

Whitepapers

Securing web applications made simple and scalable
In this whitepaper learn how automated security testing can provide a simple and scalable way to protect your web applications.
Five 3D headsets to be won!
We were so impressed by the Durovis Dive headset we’ve asked the company to give some away to Reg readers.
HP ArcSight ESM solution helps Finansbank
Based on their experience using HP ArcSight Enterprise Security Manager for IT security operations, Finansbank moved to HP ArcSight ESM for fraud management.
The benefits of software based PBX
Why you should break free from your proprietary PBX and how to leverage your existing server hardware.
Mobile application security study
Download this report to see the alarming realities regarding the sheer number of applications vulnerable to attack, as well as the most common and easily addressable vulnerability errors.