QIT: quantum hope or quantum hype?
Certain uncertainty surrounds quantum information technology
Posted in Physics, 4th May 2006 08:37 GMT
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Bob flicks one of the switches, leaves it on for ten minutes while he slips into something more uncomfortable, and then turns it off. Then he quickly flicks another and squeaks downstairs. Obviously, he knows which bulb is powered from the switch he just flicked by looking.
Bob's genius is to feel the other two bulbs. One is warm, so he knows that was the one that the first switch turned on, and therefore, by elimination which bulb the final switch operates.
That, in a somewhat abstract nutshell, is the power behind quantum computing. Part of the reason quantum IT is so poorly understood is that things get pretty brain-melting when the experts talk in real-world specifics. Thought experiments are key to understanding the field.
Bob's first thinking is traditional and binary; the bulbs are on or off, one or zero. His solution is the essence of quantum computing; there is more than two states the bulbs can take.
“No Noah, qubits”
Bob's quantum solution is simple. The state of each bulb is a qubit – a quantum bit. The thing that makes qubits more powerful than regular ol' bits is another of those weird quantum effects: entanglement. Entanglement means that added together qubits can express more than one state simultaneously, just like Bob's warm bulb. For a heavier reading of how quantum changes things in terms of logic gates, see here.
The physical form qubits will finally take in quantum computers isn't yet clear. There's a gaggle of contenders, and some analysts think the reality may be that different quanta will be set on different problems. Photons, ions, electrons, regular atoms, carbon nanotechnology and silicon dots are all working as qubits, and in varying stages of development. They use quantum properties like polarization, magnetism, spin, and phase transitions to hold the information. What they have in common is being a way off hitting the streets. Estimates vary fairly wildly as to when we'll see the first quantum powerhouse proper with upwards of 40 qubits crunching Very Hard Sums, but it's difficult to find anyone in the know who'll say fewer than 10 years. Most punt between 15 and 25.
Money is finding its way into the field, but too slowly for some. HP's quantum guru Tim Spiller said quantum R&D investment needs to increase by an order of magnitude to bring about the “Quantum Age”.
Pipeline hypetime
When there's an Age on its way, or even the dreaded paradigm shift, the hype factor inevitably enters the fray. Analyst firm Gartner's hype curve is already vigilant for signs of industry reaching “the plateau of disillusionment” with quantum computing (see the 3G blunder). Overselling quantum could be to book the undertaker before the baby's even walking.
Science has been burnt of past controversies too; veteran Princeton quantum scientist Herschel Rabitz recalls a debacle in the early 80s over a misreported finding in his field of controlling chemical reactions through quantum manipulation. He thinks the fallout set it back 15 years. GM crops and Prince Charles' infamously Luddite “grey goo” comments on nanotech mean scientists can get suspicious when outsiders start taking an interest.
Media reports when scientists announced they had “teleported” the quantum state of a photon precipitated inevitable Star Trek screen grabs in the press.
Insiders appreciate quantum's killer application may not come from research. The people who invented the laser used it as little more than a lab toy. Tim Spiller said: “We should at least be prepared for the fact that the inventors of major QIT applications may not have PhDs in quantum physics!”
In the meantime, interested parties are concentrating on the more mundane aspects of building an industry. Another Cambridge-MIT meeting later this month will set about trying to establish standards. Quantum cryptography buyers have a problem that they cannot observe their system working, for example. A standards-based stamp of approval might lay minds at ease.
Phew. The last word goes to Nobel Prize winning quantum physics genius Richard P Feynman, one of the high priests of the quantum cult. He said: “Nobody understands quantum theory.” He was including himself. ®
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