So, will IM replace SMS?

The only discernible difference between SMS and IM messaging would be the real time element of delivery, which 3G networks are more than capable of handling now with increased total bandwidth and lower latency. This would mean that interfaces could be developed which arrange messages into separate conversational threads rather than in strict order of arrival. And IM traffic can be opened up to groups, not just between two individuals.

A big difference between the various cellcos and their wired IM equivalents is the control over their service architectures and what they allow on their networks. In a way the cellcos have struck first, while they all remain walled garden type services, in the hope that by the time they find they are opening up to pure IP delivery, and as development platforms allow third party products, they won’t lose all their customers to outside software providers.

The new IM will have a system of charges like phone calls on the basis of the calling party picking up the check, although exactly how that will work with an ISP IM’ing a mobile we’re not sure. The software will be built from recommendations from the GSM Association.

What we find interesting is that Microsoft’s Telco group just got through helping Beijing Mobile, part of China Mobile, and a member of this group, put together an IM service using its Connected Services Framework, which is supposed to be gaining 10,000 customers a day, and has several million signed up for it. Even if the IM isn’t supplied using Microsoft code, it is exposed to other services using the Microsoft service framework.

From there it would be easy for it to operate as a pure web service with any other IM on the planet. It is, however, unlikely that the US cellcos are planning to join this initiative, and this week Cingular Wireless announced that Yahoo! has partnered with it to launch "AT&T Yahoo Go Mobile," which lets subscribers access Yahoo! email, IM and photo services on a Cingular mobile.

Copyright © 2006, Faultline

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