Feeds

Semico forecasts another gloomy year for chip biz

Statistical model points to weakness

  • alert
  • submit to reddit

The flat or declining sales seen by some of the world's leading chip companies during the first three months of the year could be the first sign that 2003 isn't going to be a good year for the semiconductor industry.

That's certainly what market researcher Semico believes, based on its statistic modelling of the business. The company's Inflection Point Indicator (IPI) models the state of the market and provides an indication of the industry's health six to nine months down the line.

From December 2002 to this past February, the IPI has given a negative result - that, says Semico, points to industry instability, and the company is now considering revising its forecasts downward.

Back in March, Semico was bullishly declaring 2003 revenue growth of 23 per cent to $173 billion, and 17 per cent unit growth to 396 billion units. Both figures were well above similar forecasts from rival market researcher Dataquest.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is currently forecasting double-digit growth in the latter half of the year. But if March's sales figures yield a further negative IPI, claims Semico, then that means 2003 will be another poor year. A positive IPI, on the other hand, holds the prospect that the SIA's predictions may be realised.

Yesterday's results from Intel, IBM and Motorola, and the SIA's own figures for February - sales declined 3.3 per cent over January, it said - suggest that Semico's March IPI isn't going to point to an upturn. The SIA's March figures are not due until the end of this month. Semico hasn't said when it will reveal its March IPI. ®

Related Stories

Motorola chip unit slides into red
IBM chip sales and margins static
Intel sales flatter than a pancake
Chip sales slide as recovery 'stalls'

Whitepapers

Secure remote control for conventional and virtual desktops
Balancing user privacy and privileged access, in accordance with compliance frameworks and legislation. Evaluating any potential remote control choice.
WIN a very cool portable ZX Spectrum
Win a one-off portable Spectrum built by legendary hardware hacker Ben Heck
Storage capacity and performance optimization at Mizuno USA
Mizuno USA turn to Tegile storage technology to solve both their SAN and backup issues.
High Performance for All
While HPC is not new, it has traditionally been seen as a specialist area – is it now geared up to meet more mainstream requirements?
The next step in data security
With recent increased privacy concerns and computers becoming more powerful, the chance of hackers being able to crack smaller-sized RSA keys increases.