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The IDC Top 10 IT industry tips for 2002

When will the fog of war lift?

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John Gantz, chief research officer at IDC, the IT analyst firm, presented these forecasts to customers in a telebriefing, entitled: "Predictions 2002: Will the Fog of War Lift?"

  • The global IT market rebound will begin by mid-2002, perhaps sooner. September 11 and its effect on the economy knocked back earlier predictions that the rebound would begin in 2001. In 2002 IT spending will increase 4-6 per cent in the United States, 6-7 per cent in Western Europe and 10-12 per cent in Asia/Pacific. These are based on conservative economic assumptions, say IDC.
  • China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) will help ensure its 25 per cent IT spending growth continues for years. By 2010 it will be the third largest IT market in the world.
  • Businesses will feel a crunch in 2002 as users and workers with wireless and mobile Internet access create demand for enterprise support that's not yet in place.
  • The "Bin Laden Effect," will drive enterprises to rethink their specs for business continuity - creating a need to reset IT security plans in 2002.
  • Microsoft pushing Passport to XP users and competitors reacting, digital identity services will become real - even if single-sign-on to the Web will remain a consumer's pipe dream.
  • Streaming media will be hot as new standards come online and new services and market needs - some in reaction to September 11 - come into play;
  • The concept of "web services" will hit its hype peak in 2002 - long before any critical mass of products or services in the market is reached.
  • Linux will have a "breakout year." Last year there were a number of ways the market could have gone - including into the tank. Now it seems clear that Linux has become a viable alternative for enterprise use.
  • Although the market for server blades won't be a big money maker in 2002, the new architecture will disrupt the entry server and appliance server markets -yet another disturbance in a server market already undergoing multiple transitions;
  • 75 million WinXP licenses will ship in 2002, but XP won't have the clout that Windows 95 did in driving hardware sales or generating first-time users.

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