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DRAM sales to grow 16% next year

Bouncing back - as will CPU sales

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Market research companies may have a negative to cautiously positive outlook on next year's worldwide chip sales, but the business' own Semiconductor Industry Association has a more optimistic forecast.

Sales will rise six per cent next year and 21 per cent the year after, the organisation forecast yesterday.

That compares with Gartner Dataquest's recent prediction of three per cent growth through 2002, and Future Horizons' more pessimistic prediction of a further 5.5 per cent contraction next year.

All three reckon the market will really turn around in 2003, with Gartner Dataquest anticipating 30 per cent growth during that year. Essentially it reckons the upswing will be as sharp as this year's downturn.

The SIA, as an industry sponsored operation, has a reason to talk up a more rapid recovery. It reckons the upturn will happen this quarter and continue on a shallow upward curve through 2002.

The microprocessor market is a leading sector, growing seven per cent next year to $25 billion, the SIA believes. Beyond 2002, growth with rise to 16 per cent in 2003 and ten per cent in 2004, for annual sales of $29 billion and $31 billion, respectively. So come 2004, the processor market will finally get back to where it was last year.

The DRAM market - surprise, surprise - will prove even more volatile, recovering from this year's 60 per cent decline to grow 16 per cent next year, 44 per cent in 2003 and 54 per cent in 2004. The market will be worth around $13 billion, $19 billion and $29 billion in 2002, 2003 and 2004, respectively. ®

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