Pentium 4 won't outsell PIII until October – Intel

Leaked sales projections

Intel's projected processor shipments for the next couple of months have leaked and they make interesting reading.

For a start, the first Celeron processor fabbed at 0.13 micron isn't projected to rack up sales until October. That suggests the 1.2GHz part won't ship until that month.

But that's the least of it. The figures, leaked to Web site Xbit Labs, show that for all Intel's decision to emphasise the Pentium 4, the Pentium III will continue to dominate its output over the coming months. Indeed, the older, 0.18 micron Coppermine PIII will outsell the newer, 0.13 micron die-shrink Tualatin by a hefty margin, despite a massive decline in sales.

Equally, the Celeron market will be dominated by 0.18 micron parts, though with Intel marking far less of an issue out of 0.13 micron in this sector, that's not so surprising.

Intel's Q3 chip sales

Figures in 1000s

Intel's P4 projections show a rapid ramp for the Socket 478 version of the chip, the part designed for its i845 PC133 SDRAM chipset and the basis for the upcoming 0.13 micron P4s, codenamed Northwood. Sales of Socket 578 P4s should eclipse sales of the older Socket 423 version this month. In October, Intel expects to ship around twice as many 478s and 423s, and we expect sales of 478 parts to take off even faster in November when the 2.0GHz and 2.2GHz Northwoods are launched.

Interestingly, the P4 will have only begun to outsell PIII next month. And even with the P4's accelerated growth through September and October - based on the anticipated effect of 26 August's price cuts, no doubt - may not be enough for Intel to meet its previously set target of 20 million P4 shipments in calendar 2001.

Certainly, the overall sales trend is downward, with a shallow decline through September before October's total sales rise above July's. Clearly Intel doesn't expect to see much of a recovery before Q4, a forecast backed up by current trends in the semiconductor market as a whole.

    July August* September* October*
Pentium 4 Socket 423 440 940 1,510 1,920
  Socket 478 0 260 1,850 4,080
Pentium III 0.13 micron
110 220 320 400
  0.18 micron
7,480 6,490 3,580 2,530
Celeron 0.13 micron
0 0 0 400
Celeron 0.18 micron
2,970 3,080 3,560 3,990
Total   11,000 10,990 10,820 13,320
*projection. All figures in 1000s

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