Feeds

How the hell can you say GameCube will outsell Xbox by 2005?

You need a big pair of crystal balls

  • alert
  • submit to reddit

Boost IT visibility and business value

Two days ago we wrote that Sony's PS2 will top sales in Europe, the US and Japan by 2005 in the next-generation console shoot-out. The Xbox will grab second position in Europe but come in third place behind Nintendo's GameCube in the US and Japan.

The media analysts coming up with this result are Screen Digest, who compiled a report into the market for ELSPA, the European Leisure Software Publishers Association.

But how the hell do they know? Screen Digest got quite specific with its figures. Across all three regions Microsoft will shift 31.62 million Xbox units by the end of 2004, Nintendo will sell 31.88 million GameCube units, and Sony will have cleared 46.05 million PS2s.

"No one has a magic crystal ball for trying to forecast markets," Ben Keen, executive director of Screen Digest, told The Register.

What they do have is a computer model of the world market, which they've been developing for some time. They put in historical data, and combine this with info they glean from "full and frank" conversations with the console manufacturers, software publishers and developers, and retailers. So they know marketing plans, the software line-ups and how many of them are expected to be top class, the hardware specs, and the level of support from publishers.

"This a very very tough one to call - there is no weakest link," says Keen. "There are three very strong runners, but you can take a reasonable set of assumptions based on each contender. I can't possibly know the future but I think you can make some informed predictions, and you can learn from history."

History includes things like the Sega Dreamcast which Screen Digest basically said was going to stiff in its console report published at the start 2000. "We gave it a conservative market share," understates Keen

So why will the PS2 still be in front by the end of 2004? Because it's got a headstart. "The software support started not as well as they'd hoped but it is increasingly coming through," says Keen, who believes the add-on pieces Sony's going to bring out will help it compete with against the superior specs
of the other two consoles.

"They're in the driving seat and will be able to respond to whatever's thrown at them."

Keen also believes there'll be a PS3 by the end of 2004.

The Nintendo GameCube will have a slight edge on the Microsoft Xbox because of its gaming history, its targeting of a lower age gamer rather than the broader home entertainment market, and possibly because it's name is cooler than Microsoft.

"Microsoft will be doing everything possible to downplay its brand. Come the launch of Xbox you won't see the Microsoft name splashed around. It's not the hippest brand," says Keen. ®

Related Link

Screen Digest's report

Related Story

< a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/content/50/19979.html">Nintendo's GameCube to outsell MS Xbox by 2005
Nintendo questions Xbox release date

The Power of One Brief: Top reasons to choose HP BladeSystem

More from The Register

next story
Stick a 4K in them: Super high-res TVs are DONE
4,000 pixels is niche now... Don't say we didn't warn you
BBC goes offline in MASSIVE COCKUP: Stephen Fry partly muzzled
Auntie tight-lipped as major outage rolls on
Philip K Dick 'Nazi alternate reality' story to be made into TV series
Amazon Studios, Ridley Scott firm to produce The Man in the High Castle
iPad? More like iFAD: We reveal why Apple fell into IBM's arms
But never fear fanbois, you're still lapping up iPhones, Macs
Amazon Reveals One Weird Trick: A Loss On Almost $20bn In Sales
Investors really hate it: Share price plunge as growth SLOWS in key AWS division
Bose says today is F*** With Dre Day: Beats sued in patent battle
Music gear giant seeks some of that sweet, sweet Apple pie
There's NOTHING on TV in Europe – American video DOMINATES
Even France's mega subsidies don't stop US content onslaught
You! Pirate! Stop pirating, or we shall admonish you politely. Repeatedly, if necessary
And we shall go about telling people you smell. No, not really
Too many IT conferences to cover? MICROSOFT to the RESCUE!
Yet more word of cuts emerges from Redmond
prev story

Whitepapers

Implementing global e-invoicing with guaranteed legal certainty
Explaining the role local tax compliance plays in successful supply chain management and e-business and how leading global brands are addressing this.
Consolidation: The Foundation for IT Business Transformation
In this whitepaper learn how effective consolidation of IT and business resources can enable multiple, meaningful business benefits.
Application security programs and practises
Follow a few strategies and your organization can gain the full benefits of open source and the cloud without compromising the security of your applications.
How modern custom applications can spur business growth
Learn how to create, deploy and manage custom applications without consuming or expanding the need for scarce, expensive IT resources.
Securing Web Applications Made Simple and Scalable
Learn how automated security testing can provide a simple and scalable way to protect your web applications.