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Tero teases out the trends at Telecom 99

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The Essential Guide to IT Transformation

1. Value is migrating towards the core of the networks. Voice and data merge seamlessly and huge data volume growth will turn leading IP infrastructure companies into the biggest winners of the industry. Applications and consumer devices used to access data will become commodity items, hawked at ever-decreasing prices by Asian low-end wonders. Mobile operators destroy each other's profitability by price competition and massive network build-ups - funneling the money to manufacturers who build the voice/data core networks, not base stations and other dinky periphery stuff. The Future belongs to Cisco, Lucent and Nortel. Over-valued losers: Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson and mobile operators. 2. Value is migrating towards the periphery of the networks. Huge demand in voice and data traffic has triggered a massive over-investment, which will turn into a glut of overcapacity. New innovations will demand new mobile data access devices - feeding an orgy of consumer interest in high-margin gadgets. Only strongest consumer brands can fully exploit this trend. Voice over IP is still a hazy dream in mobile networks - and everything is going mobile. Mobile operators will achieve an unforeseen profitability by turning themselves into M-commerce portals and concentrating on value-added services. Delivering voice and data in bulk becomes a despised commodity: the real profits are in the companies closest to consumers. Wire-line infrastructure joins railroad industry at the trash-heap of business history. The Future belongs to Motorola, Nokia, Ericsson and mobile operators. Over-valued losers: Cisco, Lucent and Nortel. There you go - you only need to look at the big picture and predicting industry trends is a breeze. ® Related stories Telecoms 99: The winners and the (many) losers The Survivor's Guide to Geneva 2003

The Essential Guide to IT Transformation

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