Feeds

Intel chief: 64-bit could take ten years to conquer desktop

And Moore's Law isn't dead after all

  • alert
  • submit to reddit

3 Big data security analytics techniques

Gordon Moore is alive and well -- and so is his law, Intel boss Craig Barrett said at the Gartner ITExpo in Orlando yesterday, dismissing the recent suggestion by an Intel engineer that Moore's time was up. In fact Barrett envisaged five more generations before the limits of CMOS technology were reached, when the signal to noise ratio would become critical at around 0.05 microns. By most standard this is pretty optimistic, and provided Barrett isn't just whistling in the dark it suggests that Intel must have several rabbits it thinks it can pull out of its R&D hat. But as a consequence, Barrett thinks that the world will come to an end on 15 June 2015 - or at least CMOS will. For Intel, GHz chips were something for the second half of next year, Barrett said, although he liked to refer to these as 0.001 TeraHz processors. Asked about Itanium, he mentioned that as a metallurgist, he worked quite a bit with Titanium, which seemed to be a clue. Certainly he preferred the name Itanium to Celeron. He did have some ominous words to say about the move to 64-bit, suggesting that it could be five to ten years before it would be the norm on the desktop; he compared this to the ten years between the introduction of the 80386 and the significant development of 32-bit desktop applications. If it's really going to take ten years, then we can maybe start wondering about Intel's roadmapping. The company officially reckons McKinley, the iteration after Merced, will be the 64-bit Intel chip that moves into the mainstream, but that's hardly a ten years from now product. Intel does intend to keep plugging away at 32-bit alongside 64-bit for a few years, so Barrett could be signalling that this plan will be extended. Or alternatively, we could bear in mind that Intel was happily selling 386 chips for several years before the software started to catch up. But there were reasons for the slow development of the software that probably don't apply these days. At the 386 introduction Microsoft and IBM were in the driving seat (and incidentally still squabble over whose fault it was they originally aimed OS/2 at the 286). These days we've got Linux and several flavours of Unix aimed at IA-64, so take-up is likely to be a lot faster. But that's software, and a problem for Microsoft - so Barrett should worry. On bandwidth his line is down-the-line Intel. It will not only increase, he forecasts, but will become essentially free. Of course, the advantage will be that more powerful processors will be needed to compress, decompress and process the data. He also observed that France had at last emerged from the 15th century so far as encryption was concerned. Unfortunately, he was very gently questioned, so when he was asked about the Intel-Microsoft relationship, and whether Microsoft was becoming less Intel-focussed, he only genuflected and swore Intel would not develop an operating system. Nor would Barrett elaborate on whether Intel was taking any design steps to assist Unix flavours. When asked about Linux, he trotted out the usual bullet-point attributes, but Linux has some way to go in the processor-design space. Barrett said that Intel was one of the major users of workstations in the world, and had evolved from IBM to HP and now to NT machines, but with some Linux. He said he had a loose marriage with software. A question begging to be asked that was unfortunately not pursued - that e-commerce would demand great scalability in servers, and was NT up to it - might well have elicited an interesting reply. ®

Combat fraud and increase customer satisfaction

More from The Register

next story
Dropbox defends fantastically badly timed Condoleezza Rice appointment
'Nothing is going to change with Dr. Rice's appointment,' file sharer promises
Audio fans, prepare yourself for the Second Coming ... of Blu-ray
High Fidelity Pure Audio – is this what your ears have been waiting for?
Did a date calculation bug just cost hard-up Co-op Bank £110m?
And just when Brit banking org needs £400m to stay afloat
MtGox chief Karpelès refuses to come to US for g-men's grilling
Bitcoin baron says he needs another lawyer for FinCEN chat
Zucker punched: Google gobbles Facebook-wooed Titan Aerospace
Up, up and away in my beautiful balloon flying broadband-bot
Apple DOMINATES the Valley, rakes in more profit than Google, HP, Intel, Cisco COMBINED
Cook & Co. also pay more taxes than those four worthies PLUS eBay and Oracle
It may be ILLEGAL to run Heartbleed health checks – IT lawyer
Do the right thing, earn up to 10 years in clink
prev story

Whitepapers

Securing web applications made simple and scalable
In this whitepaper learn how automated security testing can provide a simple and scalable way to protect your web applications.
3 Big data security analytics techniques
Applying these Big Data security analytics techniques can help you make your business safer by detecting attacks early, before significant damage is done.
The benefits of software based PBX
Why you should break free from your proprietary PBX and how to leverage your existing server hardware.
Top three mobile application threats
Learn about three of the top mobile application security threats facing businesses today and recommendations on how to mitigate the risk.
Combat fraud and increase customer satisfaction
Based on their experience using HP ArcSight Enterprise Security Manager for IT security operations, Finansbank moved to HP ArcSight ESM for fraud management.