Feeds

Win2k everywhere: 70 per cent of you will upgrade

Hope triumphs over experience, apparently...

  • alert
  • submit to reddit

Beginner's guide to SSL certificates

Further evidence has emerged of Microsoft's determination to push Windows 2000 hard when it finally ships. Group VP Jeff Raikes yesterday told an investment conference that he expects 70 per cent of existing Windows machines will be upgraded. If that one comes true it'll put many a dollar into Microsoft's coffers, but how likely is it? And what evidence is Raikes basing his claims on? He thinks that 70 per cent of existing Windows machines are capable of running Win2k, and apart from thinking that this is not true, you might also think the strange coincidence of percentages just a little bit eerie. So everybody who can upgrade to Win2k will upgrade? Very weird notion indeed. Compare and contrast with what Microsoft was saying about likely Windows 95 take-up prior to that launch -- Steve Ballmer trailed a few numbers in front of the analysts, but they weren't consistent numbers, and more often the company said that it frankly did not know. Which it didn't, in the case of upgrades. Microsoft knows almost absolutely how many new machines are going to ship with new operating systems, because it's already signed off its contracts with virtually all of the PC manufacturers. There's obviously some room for variation if the customers still have a choice, but MDAs (Market Development Agreements) build financial carrots and sticks into the deals so the OEMs are encouraged to ship what Microsoft wants them to ship. Microsoft does not, however, know about upgrade and retail sales, which is the area Raikes is talking about. It might, if it looks back at the inglorious history of its retail OS assaults, have a pretty shrewd idea that in fact, most users do not upgrade their existing OS -- they upgrade when they buy a new PC. Windows 95 retail sales, despite the hoopla, were not particularly impressive. So if Raikes thinks with Win2k it's going to be different, a lot different, unprecedentedly different, we can presume the mother of all marketing campaigns when the product's rolled out. Raikes, by the way, repeats that it's on target for release to manufacture by the end of the year. Of course there's one way Microsoft might be able to get very high upgrade rates (actually there are several, but the others aren't legal) -- it could give the Win2k upgrade away. It's a thought, isn't it? ®

Remote control for virtualized desktops

More from The Register

next story
MI6 oversight report on Lee Rigby murder: US web giants offer 'safe haven for TERRORISM'
PM urged to 'prioritise issue' after Facebook hindsight find
I'll be back (and forward): Hollywood's time travel tribulations
Quick, call the Time Cops to sort out this paradox!
Assange™ slumps back on Ecuador's sofa after detention appeal binned
Swedish court rules there's 'great risk' WikiLeaker will dodge prosecution
NSA mass spying reform KILLED by US Senators
Democrats needed just TWO more votes to keep alive bill reining in some surveillance
prev story

Whitepapers

Designing and building an open ITOA architecture
Learn about a new IT data taxonomy defined by the four data sources of IT visibility: wire, machine, agent, and synthetic data sets.
5 critical considerations for enterprise cloud backup
Key considerations when evaluating cloud backup solutions to ensure adequate protection security and availability of enterprise data.
Getting started with customer-focused identity management
Learn why identity is a fundamental requirement to digital growth, and how without it there is no way to identify and engage customers in a meaningful way.
High Performance for All
While HPC is not new, it has traditionally been seen as a specialist area – is it now geared up to meet more mainstream requirements?
Protecting against web application threats using SSL
SSL encryption can protect server‐to‐server communications, client devices, cloud resources, and other endpoints in order to help prevent the risk of data loss and losing customer trust.