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Palm to hit 60 per cent share by 2003 – report

But the research may be blindsided by new entrants...

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3Com Palm Systems will increase its market share and continue to dominate the handheld market, according to a new market study from Computer Economics of Carlsbad, California. Palm is forecast to go from the present 54 per cent market share to 60 percent in 2003, while Windows CE devices will increase from 8 per cent to 18 per cent. The loser will be "others". Not surprisingly, low-end models are expected to outsell high-end models. In 1999, the study suggests 6.5 million units will ship, with 3.9 million of these being at the low end. By 2003, it is suggested that 14 million units will ship, with 9.1 million being at the low end. No methodology for the study is given. It also seems rather brave to assume that there will be no new entrants of any consequence, and to make a five year forecast of this market. It's easy enough to make some gross assumptions and put these in a spread sheet, but how valid can the assumptions be? ®

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