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Forrester predicts terminal slump for PCs

One more year of plenty, and then Larry Ellison starts winning...

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Forrester Research has predicted the onset of a three-year decline in PC sales from 2000, as the Y2K effect vanishes and buyers migrate to appliances. The outfit says PC industry revenues will peak at $55 billion next year, boosted by companies accelerating their purchasing programmes to replace non Y2K-compliant hardware. So it'll be a good time to cash your stock options. After that revenues for 2000 will slump to $47 billion, and PC manufacturers with excess inventory (most of them, no doubt) will be slashing prices to move it out. The next bad news to kick-in will be that customers won't want to replace machines ever two years or so, and instead will be looking at Internet appliances, and at using thin client techniques to keep their older machines in service. "The PC industry will never regain the $8 billion in corporate sales it loses in 2000," says Forrester's Carl Howe. "By the time companies complete their year 2000 remediation, a new class of simpler and cheaper Internet appliances will keep the PC market from ever regaining its 1990s glory." So when you cash those stock options next year, put the money into Oracle and Citrix. ® Click for more stories Click for story index

Build a business case: developing custom apps

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